Ethiopia’s wheat imports in 2026/27 will remain at 1.4 mln tons

In the 2026/27 season (October–September), Ethiopia’s imports of wheat and wheat products are expected to total 1.4 million tons, the same as in the current season, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA).

Imports of wheat during the first five months of the current season (October 2025–February 2026) reached 531.4 thousand tons, including 229.5 thousand tons from Russia, 185.8 thousand tons from Romania, 57.6 thousand tons from Turkey, and 57.6 thousand tons from Ukraine.

During the entire previous season, Ethiopia imported 1,055.8 thousand tons of wheat, including 713 thousand tons from Russia, 162.6 thousand tons from Ukraine, 109.6 thousand tons from Romania, and 37.1 thousand tons from Turkey.

Ethiopian millers report that limited domestic wheat availability forces them to rely on imports through private traders. These traders use their own foreign currency to purchase bulk wheat from Black Sea countries, delivering it to the port of Djibouti. The wheat is then sold to Ethiopian milling companies from Djibouti, usually under letters of credit. This trade structure underscores the ongoing importance of imports in maintaining market stability and meeting domestic demand.

Wheat and wheat product imports peaked at 1.4 million tons in the 2023/24 season before falling to 1.3 million tons in 2024/25. During this period, wheat imports averaged around 803 thousand tons. Wheat flour imports totaled approximately 320 thousand tons and showed greater year-to-year fluctuations. The import estimate includes wheat brought in as food aid.

The introduction of a 25% import duty on wheat flour in 2024 reduced the competitiveness of imported flour and reinforced the downward trend in import volumes. The combination of higher duties, foreign currency shortages, and national currency devaluation made imported flour less attractive compared to locally milled wheat products.

Ethiopian milling companies generally prefer imported wheat as it allows for more efficient use of milling capacity and better profit control. Overall, these structural and policy factors suggest that wheat flour imports are likely to remain limited.

Domestic wheat production in Ethiopia continues to grow due to expanded irrigation, wider adoption of improved seeds, sustained investments in commercial cluster farming and mechanization, as well as strong government support.

In the 2026/27 season, Ethiopia’s grain production is expected to increase, particularly for wheat, maize, barley, and sorghum. Total wheat output is projected at 7.0 million tons, up 8% from the current season, and maize at 10.5 million tons (+2.9%).

Despite this progress, the supply of domestic wheat remains limited. As a result, milling companies increasingly turn to commercial wheat imports from Black Sea countries, which are often preferred due to competitive pricing.

Wheat consumption in 2026/27 is projected at 8.2 million tons (+3.8%). Consumption growth is primarily driven by rapid population growth, accelerated urbanization, and changing consumer habits favoring processed wheat products such as bread and pasta. Ongoing rural-to-urban migration is a key structural factor in this trend. As millions move to cities, where traditional staple foods like maize and sorghum are less common, wheat has become a primary food source due to its availability and convenience. The expanding urban food service sector and rising demand for commercially processed wheat products continue to support steady growth in domestic wheat consumption.

The Ethiopian Trading Business Corporation (ETBC) is mandated to stabilize domestic markets for key grains, including teff, wheat, and maize. ETBC purchases these commodities on local markets to respond to supply shortages and mitigate price fluctuations. Through market interventions, including purchases from cooperatives and traders during surplus periods, and the release of stocks as needed, ETBC maintains more stable supply and prices while supporting both farmers and consumers. ETBC also procures major grains, including wheat and maize, domestically and supplies them to international humanitarian organizations and other partners for distribution as part of food aid programs. In the 2025/26 season (July–June), ETBC plans to purchase and sell 46 thousand tons of wheat, 47 thousand tons of maize, and 17.8 thousand tons of teff on the domestic market.

Ethiopia’s government policies—including easing export restrictions on key grains, formalizing cross-border trade, and launching trade under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)—are expected to expand commercial grain production, particularly maize, and boost maize exports to regional markets. Additionally, the government’s plan to establish national grain reserves, alongside related food security initiatives, is likely to strengthen market integration and create more stable demand for domestic production, positively influencing grain output growth in the coming years.

However, these policy efforts take place in a challenging market environment. Domestic grain prices remain consistently above international levels due to high production costs, supply chain inefficiencies, informal trade, and currency devaluation. Rising fuel and input prices, combined with periodic security challenges in key agricultural regions, have further increased transportation and operating costs, driving up local food prices and limiting access to resources and markets.

The humanitarian situation remains difficult. Ongoing conflicts and climate-related shocks, including recurrent droughts, floods, and unpredictable rainfall, continue to hinder agricultural production. Millions of displaced persons and other vulnerable groups depend on food aid, as production deficits persist in affected areas.

Tags: wheat, imports, Ethiopia