Egypt's increased purchases support prices for Black Sea and Ukrainian wheat
Ukraine is experiencing an increase in export demand and prices for wheat due to low supply, while world prices have again started to decline.
According to Bloomberg, the Egyptian state agency Mostakbal Misr, which is responsible for grain imports, has contracted about 500 thousand tons of wheat from the countries of the Black Sea region for delivery in December and January. Of these, 200 thousand tons of wheat will be delivered from the Russian Federation, 150 thousand tons from Bulgaria and more than 130 thousand tons from Ukraine. In addition, the agency is negotiating the purchase of another 500 thousand tons of grain from various countries, and the deal is expected to be concluded in early December.
Against the backdrop of low supply, traders continued to raise purchase prices in Ukraine, and over the week, export demand prices for wheat increased by 50-100 UAH/t to 10,550-10,700 UAH/t for food wheat and 9,900-10,100 UAH/t for feed wheat with delivery to Black Sea ports, but prices in foreign currency remained at the levels of $218-223/t and $207-209/t, respectively.
In the MY 2025/26 (as of November 10), Ukraine exported 6.5 million tons of wheat, which is 26% lower than the corresponding figure last year (8.5 million tons).
It should be noted that wheat exports from the Russian Federation increased in October and reached 6.2 million tons, and in total since the beginning of the MY 2025/26, they amounted to 18.2 million tons, which is 28% less than in the same period in 2024 (23.3 million tons).
After two weeks of active growth, wheat stock quotes fell again on news that China bought only 120,000 tons of American wheat for delivery in December, as traders consider this a political move by China.
During the week, December wheat futures on exchanges decreased:
- by 1.4% to $196.9/t – for SRW wheat in Chicago,
- by 0.9% to $193.6/t – for HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- by 1.6% to €190.75/t or $220.5/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris.
At the same time, HRS wheat futures in Minneapolis rose by 0.8% to $207.3/t.
During October 30 – November 6, wheat exports from the United States decreased by 17% compared to the previous week to 290.5 thousand tons, and in total in the MY 2025/26 reached 12.11 million tons, which is 19.2% ahead of last year’s pace.
According to market operators, FLC, a leading South Korean animal feed producer, purchased about 60,000 tons of feed wheat of any origin from operator Agrocorp at an international tender on November 6 at a price of $263/ton C&F, which corresponds to a price level of $208-210/ton with delivery to Black Sea ports in Ukraine.
After the start of harvesting good wheat crops in Australia and Argentina, buyers will increase their purchases of grain from these regions, hoping for a decrease in prices under the pressure of significant supply, so one should not expect further price increases both in the world and in Ukraine.
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