Egypt boosts wheat production and imports to meet growing demand

Egypt, with a population of 108 million, requires 20 million tonnes of wheat annually to satisfy rising demand, but domestic production covers only about half of this need, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. In its September 22, 2025, report, the FAS projects Egypt’s wheat harvest to increase slightly to 9.2 million tonnes in the 2025-26 season, up from 9 million tonnes in the previous season. Wheat imports are expected to grow similarly, reaching 12.7 million tonnes, up from 12.5 million tonnes.

In Egypt, wheat is typically planted in November and harvested in April. The area planted depends on government procurement prices, which incentivize farmers to grow more wheat for sale to state entities, the FAS noted. High procurement prices have encouraged increased production, yet domestic output still meets only 50–55% of Egypt’s wheat needs. Due to a robust subsidy program ensuring affordable bread for most of the population, Egypt remains one of the world’s top wheat importers.

The FAS highlights that Egypt is highly price-sensitive and relies heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat due to competitive pricing, lower freight costs, and faster delivery to Egyptian ports compared to other suppliers. Over the past three years, the private sector has increased its share of wheat imports, boosting flour exports to regional markets and supplying private bakeries and cafes producing high-quality products.

Wheat flour exports for 2025-26 are estimated at 1 million tonnes, a 23% decrease from the 1.3 million tonnes projected for 2024-25. According to the FAS, Egypt has strengthened its position as a key supplier of wheat flour to African and Middle Eastern countries, particularly those affected by conflicts, such as Gaza and Sudan. The reduction in exports stems from stricter government regulations aimed at balancing domestic market needs with flour exports and the recovery of milling capacity in Sudan.

Corn production for the 2025-26 season (October–September) is estimated at 6.7 million tonnes, down 7.6% from an earlier FAS forecast due to excessive heat and pest pressures, particularly from the fall armyworm, which reduced yields from July to August. Corn consumption is projected to rise by 4.4% to 16.5 million tonnes, driven by demand from the poultry sector. To meet domestic needs, Egypt is expected to import 9.5 million tonnes of corn, a 9% increase, primarily from Brazil, Ukraine, and Argentina.

Milled rice production for 2025-26 is forecast at 4.2 million tonnes, up 7.7% from earlier estimates and higher than the 3.9 million tonnes harvested in 2024-25. This increase is attributed to the lower cost of rice production compared to other summer crops, prompting farmers to exceed the rice cultivation area set by Egypt’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. Rice consumption is expected to remain stable at 4 million tonnes, with imports of 140,000 tonnes meeting the demand.

Tags: Egypt, wheat, crop forecast