Early wheat production prospects for 2026 point to potential decrease as lower prices curb sown area

Global cereal production for 2025 has been raised marginally this month to 3 029 million tonnes, reflecting minor adjustments, mainly to maize and rice estimates. At this level, the world cereal outturn is 5.6 percent higher year on year, reinforcing the record level. The recent upward revisions were largely driven by updated maize yield estimates for Paraguay, putting the harvest at a record level. As for rice, FAO has raised its production estimate for Indonesia since February, as final government assessments indicate that a pronounced area expansion raised Indonesian production to a decade high. Output figures were also upgraded for Thailand, following revisions to 2024/25 estimates, but also because sowing pace in the country suggests a less pronounced area reduction of the 2025/26 offseason crop than previously envisaged. Combined with smaller adjustments for various other countries, these amendments raised FAO’s forecast of world rice production in 2025/26 by 1.7 million tonnes to 563.4 million tonnes (milled basis), up 2.1 percent year-on-year and a record high. Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia remain forecast to spearhead the season’s annual production growth, outweighing contractions namely in Madagascar, Pakistan, Thailand, and the United States of America.

World cereal utilization in 2025/26 is forecast to reach a record of 2 943 million tonnes, up 5.2 million tonnes (0.2 percent) from the February projection. Utilization of wheat is nudged up slightly while coarse grains account for most of the upward revision. Feed use of maize and barley is higher than previously expected, particularly in South America where supplies are plentiful. In the European Union, the latest official forecasts indicate a downward adjustment to feed use of maize, offset by upward revisions to feed use of wheat, barley and sorghum. Against a backdrop of large global supplies from successive bumper harvests, world rice utilization is forecast to expand at an upbeat pace of 2.7 percent in 2025/26 to reach a fresh peak of 555.5 million tonnes.

FAO’s forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the seasons in 2026 has been raised this month by 4.1 million tonnes to 940.5 million tonnes, keeping the global cereals stocks-to-use ratio at a comfortable level of 31.9 percent. At 339.9 million tonnes, global wheat inventories increased by 3.0 million tonnes (0.9 percent) this month, reflecting upward revisions for the European Union and Ukraine. Compared to their opening levels, global wheat stocks are forecast to rise by 24.2 million tonnes (7.7 percent), on anticipated large buildups in major producers including Argentina, China, the European Union, India and Ukraine. Global stocks of coarse grains are also projected to grow in 2026 by as much as 38.5 million tonnes (11.2 percent). However, this month’s forecast for barley stocks has been revised downwards, especially for the European Union, where supplies are expected to be directed towards feed use and exports. FAO has raised its forecast of world rice stocks at the close of 2025/26 marketing seasons by 1.6 million tonnes to a high of 219.3 million tonnes. The revision largely reflects upward adjustments to expected reserves in Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Thailand due to higher supply prospects, although for Bangladesh and Indonesia, it also mirrors upgrades to government reserves owing to a strong pace of public domestic procurement. These amendments outweighed downgrades to reserves namely in Japan and Nigeria.

FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals in 2025/26 (July/June) stands at 501.7 million tonnes, representing a rebound of 17.1 million tonnes (3.5 percent) from 2024/25 and the second highest level on record. The forecast for wheat trade remains unchanged this month, still pointing to an increase of 11.9 million tonnes from the previous season to 204.8 million tonnes with a return to average levels of imports expected in Türkiye after an import ban constrained purchases in the previous season. Trade in coarse grains remains broadly stable this month, up by less than 1.0 million tonnes from the previous forecast on small adjustments to trade in maize and barley. FAO’s forecast of international rice trade in 2026 (January-December) has changed little since February, continuing to point to 1.1 percent trade decline from the 2025 all-time high to 60.4 million tonnes.

Wheat production to decline in 2026 as softer prices curb sowings

Reflecting moderate area cutbacks in response to softer crop prices and an expected return to average yields after the previous year’s highs, global wheat production is anticipated to decline by nearly 3 percent to 810 million tonnes in 2026, though remaining above the five-year average.

In the European Union, weaker wheat prices contributed to an estimated scale-back in winter wheat sowings. Although eastern and northern parts suffered from cold spells, elsewhere mostly mild and generally favourable weather, which is forecast to continue for the coming months, is likely to keep yields above average. Total wheat production is nonetheless forecast to decline modestly in 2026, remaining close to the five-year average. In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, a shift away from barley and conditions that have been broadly supportive of planting underpin expectations of a modest expansion in the wheat area. Together with a foreseen recovery in yields after dry weather curbed levels in 2025, this is anticipated to lift production towards a near-average level. In the Russian Federation, the total wheat acreage, largely comprising the winter crop, is expected to continue trending downward, as relatively stronger returns for oilseeds shift farmers’ incentives away from wheat. Persistent dryness across key regions during the planting period compounded the decline. As a result, wheat production is expected to decrease moderately from the previous year. In Ukraine, wheat production is expected to remain broadly steady year on year, supported by a relatively stable planted area and yield prospects that do not currently indicate major deviations from last year’s levels. Nevertheless, the wheat output is forecast to remain well below pre-conflict levels. In the United States of America, wheat production is forecast to remain above the five-year average but to decline year on year, reflecting reduced plantings amid softer prices during the sowing period, as well as an expected modest drop in yields from the previous year’s elevated levels. In Canada, wheat plantings are expected to edge up, driven by larger soft wheat plantings. However, assuming a return to near-average yields, wheat production is forecast to decline from the previous year’s strong outturn. In India, 2026 wheat production prospects are generally favourable, supported by record sowings encouraged by government incentives. Although crop development has been partially impaired by dryness and elevated temperatures in parts of the northern states, the overall outlook still points to an output on par with last year’s all-time high. Production prospects for Pakistan’s 2026 wheat crop are also beneficial, with above‑average vegetation conditions in major producing areas owing to ample irrigation supplies. In China (mainland), mid-February field assessments indicate broadly favourable wheat crop conditions, and production is expected to remain stable year-on-year. In Near East Asia, early-season dry conditions followed by beneficial rains have resulted in a mixed yield outlook for wheat crops in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where the planted area is also expected to contract owing to increased production costs. In Türkiye, by contrast, an expansion in planted area and a projected recovery in yields from weather-reduced levels in the previous year are expected to support a modest increase in 2026 production.

South of the equator, maize production in Brazil is expected to remain above average in 2026, supported by favourable weather conditions and an expansion in the planted area driven by strong export prospects, despite downward price pressure stemming from abundant 2025 supplies. In Argentina, above-average maize plantings combined with forecasts for normal rainfall amounts for the latter part of the season are expected to result in an above-average output in 2026. South Africa is expected to harvest a second consecutive bumper maize crop in 2026, underpinned by large plantings. However, the output is forecast to be marginally below the previous year’s level, reflecting likely lower yields due to irregular weather in some provinces.

Tags: corn, barley, rice, wheat, FAO, crop forecast