Early wheat production prospects for 2025 point to potential increase

Global cereal production for 2024 has been modestly revised upward this month to 2 842 million tonnes, narrowing the gap to 2023 output, which still exceeds the 2024 level by over 14.4 million tonnes. The adjustments to the 2024 output relate mainly to wheat, mostly reflecting recent official data pointing to a larger harvest in the Islamic Republic of Iran, and for rice. Since February, FAO has upgraded its forecast of world rice production in 2024/25 by 3.6 million tonnes to a fresh peak of 543.0 million tonnes (milled basis). The revision largely reflects more buoyant crop prospects for India, where, following a record-breaking Kharif harvest, secondary crop plantings have progressed at a robust pace to date. Nevertheless, higher-than-previously-anticipated plantings of offseason crops have also boosted the production outlook for Cambodia and Myanmar. These increases in wheat and rice offset reductions made to the global coarse grain production forecast, primarily driven by a smaller-than-previously-expected barley harvest in the Russian Federation.

The global cereal utilization forecast for 2024/25 has been reduced by 1.9 million tonnes this month, but still indicates a 1.0 percent increase over the 2023/24 level, reaching 2 867 million tonnes. The world wheat utilization forecast for 2024/25 remains nearly unchanged as a decrease in food consumption is offset by an increase in other use, mostly in China (mainland). The forecast for 2024/25 global coarse grain utilization has been lowered by 3.2 million tonnes to 1 531 million tonnes, reflecting a 1.0 percent decrease from 2023/24. This reduction is due to a cut in maize feed use (primarily Indonesia) as well as other use of barley (in South Africa, Thailand, and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland). On the other hand, ample supplies are expected to facilitate world rice utilization to expand at an accelerated rate of 2.2 percent in 2024/25 to reach 539.0 million tonnes. This level would represent an all-time high and stands 1.7 million tonnes above February expectations.

Despite an upward revision of 2.7 million tonnes this month, global cereal stocks ending in 2025 are still expected to decline by 1.9 percent compared to opening levels to 869.3 million tonnes. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decrease from 30.9 percent in 2023/24 to 29.9 percent in 2024/25, still indicating a comfortable global supply situation. World wheat stocks are anticipated to decline by 1.6 percent to 312.8 million tonnes, despite an upward revision of 4.4 million tonnes this month, mostly due to higher imports in Egypt, increased production in the Islamic Republic of Iran and reduced exports from the Russian Federation. By contrast, global coarse grain inventories are further reduced by 3.7 million tonnes, and are now forecast to be 4.8 percent below their opening levels. The downgrade is primarily due to lower imports in China (mainland) and reduced domestic production in Indonesia and the Russian Federation. World rice stocks at the close of 2024/25 marketing seasons are forecast to expand by 3.1 percent year-on-year to a record high of 206.0 million tonnes. This level stands 2.0 million tonnes above February expectations, as upgrades to stock forecasts for Cambodia and, especially India, outweighed cutbacks to expected reserves namely in Myanmar.

The global cereal trade forecast for 2024/25 is pegged at 484.2 million tonnes, a slight increase of 0.7 million tonnes from last month, but still indicating a 5.6 percent decline from previous season. World wheat trade in 2024/25 (July/June) has been revised down marginally by 0.4 million tonnes since the last report, now expected to be 6.4 percent below its level in 2023/24. This month’s revision mostly reflects a cut to the export forecast for the Russian Federation and a downgrade in Türkiye’s imports. The forecast for global trade in coarse grains edges upwards fractionally (0.3 million tonnes), driven by higher maize trade prospects due to greater exports from Brazil and larger imports by Türkiye, but it is still projected to contract by 6.7 percent from 2023/24. Upgrades to import prospects for Bangladesh, Madagascar and various other countries have raised FAO’s forecast of international trade in rice in 2025 (January-December) by 800 000 tonnes to 59.9 million tonnes, implying a 1.5 percent increase from 2024 and a fresh trade peak.

Early outlook for 2025 crops

FAO’s preliminary forecast for global wheat production in 2025 indicates a modest increase, with world output projected at 796 million tonnes, a near 1 percent rise year-on-year. This growth is largely driven by expected production gains in the European Union, following a decline in 2024. Estimates suggest an increase in sowings, primarily for soft wheat, with most of the expansion centered in France and Germany. The average wheat yield among European Union countries is also expected to rise year on year; however, developing dry conditions in the east and excessive rainfall in the west, particularly in France, may limit these gains.  In the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, the winter wheat area is forecast to rebound after a 2024 reduction caused by overly wet conditions during the autumn planting period, leading to a modest production increase in 2025. In the United States of America, the total wheat area is expected to expand in 2025, driven by an increase in winter sowings and a likely rise in spring wheat acreage, potentially replacing some soybean plantings. Yields are projected to decline moderately year-on-year due to a greater portion of the winter wheat crop facing mild drought conditions compared to 2024. As a result, total wheat production is expected to decrease slightly, reaching 52.5 million tonnes. In Canada, early projections indicate an expansion in wheat plantings, supported by better soil moisture conditions and expectations of strong prices later in the year. Assuming a return to average yields, wheat production is forecast at 35 million tonnes, in line with 2024’s output. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat acreage has declined for a third consecutive year. Combined with low soil moisture levels and thin snow cover, which raises the risk of frost damage, production is forecast to fall by 2 percent year-on-year to 80 million tonnes. Ukraine’s 2025 wheat area remains below average due to the ongoing war, which continues to restrict field access, strain finances, and damage infrastructure, reducing profitability of the sector. Rainfall deficits have further weakened yield prospects, and production is projected to decline moderately year-on-year. In India, wheat plantings have reached a record level in 2025, supported by strong price incentives and government subsidies for agricultural inputs. Yields, however, are forecast to decline slightly, keeping production unchanged year-on-year at 113 million tonnes. In China, mid-February field assessments indicate favourable wheat crop conditions. The crop has recently broken dormancy in northern regions, while in eastern and central parts, it is progressing through the tillering and jointing stages. Production is expected to remain stable year-on-year and above the five-year average at 140 million tonnes. In Pakistan, wheat production is projected to decline to a near-average level in 2025, primarily due to lower yields. This reflects dry conditions that affected rainfed wheat crops and caused irrigation water shortages in northern regions. In Near East Asia, primarily Iran (Islamic Republic of) and Türkiye, rainfall deficits since late 2024 have curbed plantings and lowered yield expectations. Consequently, in both countries, wheat production is projected to fall in 2025, possibly slipping below the five-year average. In North Africa, total cereal production is anticipated to remain below average in 2025, as poor early-season rainfall delayed plantings and lowered yield potential, particularly in rainfed areas.

South of the equator, a surge in domestic maize prices in Brazil during late 2024 encouraged increased maize plantings for the main season, following below-average sowings of the minor maize crop, which is currently being harvested. Assuming normal weather patterns until the harvest period that starts in June, production expectations remain positive for 2025. In Argentina, dry conditions during sowing and early growth stages have limited yield potential. Coupled with reduced plantings due to concerns over stunt disease (spiroplasma) outbreaks, maize production is projected to be below average in 2025. In South Africa, overall maize production is forecast to increase in 2025, supported by expanded white maize acreage — driven by record prices — and a likely rebound in yields following drought-induced declines in 2024.

Summary Tables