Dry weather in Argentina supports soybean prices, but in Ukraine they remain low

Due to heavy rains, soybean planting in Argentina at the beginning of the sowing campaign exceeded last year’s, so local agencies raised their forecasts of planted areas and yield. However, the dry and hot weather that prevailed during the last week and will continue for at least two weeks reduces the potential of the future harvest of soybeans and corn.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), 87% of the planned 6.6 million hectares of corn, 93% of the planned 18.4 million hectares of soybeans, and 95% of wheat was harvested in Argentina.

Last week, the January soybean futures on the Chicago stock exchange rose 1.8% due to the weather in Argentina, on Friday fell by 1.8%, and on Monday rose again by 1.1% to 364,7 $/t, which corresponds to the level of last month. Quotes supported the high demand for U.S. soybeans from China.

During December 26-January 2, soybean exports from the United States decreased compared to the previous week by 21.8% to 1,285 million tons (of which 0.56 million tons purchased by China), and in General in 2024/25 MG reached 29.96 million tons, which is 23.2% ahead of last year’s pace.

Brazil in December, exported only 2 million tons of soybeans, which is 47.65% lower than in December 2023, as China is actively buying U.S. soybeans in anticipation of supply restrictions after the coming to power of trump and on the forecasts of lower prices for Brazilian soybeans after the start of harvest in February.

Under the pressure of low world prices in Ukraine, demand prices for GMO soybeans remain at 365-375 USD/t or 17500-17800 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports and 17000-17500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant. Export demand prices for non-GMO soybeans fell to 400-410 $/t or 19000-19200 UAH/t with delivery to ports or to the western border, while processors buy it at 18200-18800 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

Negative news about the weather in Argentina in the near future may lead to speculative growth of prices for soybeans, but the beginning of the harvest in Brazil in late January will increase pressure on the quotes.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, soybean, Argentina