Dry Spell Takes Edge Off Australia’s Bumper Wheat Harvest

A dry spell in Australia is taking the edge off of a bumper wheat harvest, trimming supplies from one of the world’s largest exporters.

Precipitation in September, a key phase for the crop’s development, was lower than normal in the southeastern states of Victoria and South Australia, according to Bureau of Meteorology data. South Australia in particular received less than 10 millimeters (0.4 inches), half the historical average.

The southeastern states account for about a quarter of Australia’s annual harvest, and both are coming out of years of severe drought. Heavy rain in winter months had raised hopes for a strong harvest, and the Department of Agriculture’s latest report in September forecast the country’s wheat harvest at its fourth largest on record. Victoria and South Australia were expected to collect about 8.2 million tons.

However, soil moisture has now worsened, and as temperatures warm up, crops could begin to struggle, said James Maxwell, agribusiness senior insights manager at Bendigo Bank. The Bureau of Meteorology is now forecasting only a minor chance of above-average rainfall in Victoria and South Australia before the end of 2025, with the majority falling in November. However, Maxwell said if the rain comes too late, it could delay the harvest rather than helping the crop.

Australia is a major wheat shipper, and while Victoria and South Australia’s wheat harvest usually caters to domestic demand, any decline in the harvest would tighten availability across the supply chain. Farmers typically begin collecting wheat around October and will finish early next year.

“I think there will be some cuts to production estimates, if they haven’t already been made, in the next month or so,” Maxwell said in an interview. “Between South Australia and Victoria, I’d say we could see easily half a million tons, up to a million, if it was really bad.”