Dry conditions in central Brazil, parts of Argentina, as well as eastern Ukraine and western Russia continue to reduce the potential for future crops
The main focus of analysts remains on the weather conditions in central Brazil, parts of Argentina, as well as in eastern Ukraine and western Russia, where dry conditions persist. This leads to a decrease in soil moisture reserves, hindering the start of soybean, corn, and winter wheat planting.
This week, western regions of Ukraine received good rainfall, while the eastern regions of Ukraine and southwestern Russia experienced intense heat and drought.
According to the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, over 70% of the areas sown with winter crops in Ukraine are under extreme drought conditions. The optimal time for planting winter rapeseed has already passed, and only about 60% of the planned area has been sown. Winter wheat sowing is progressing slowly due to the lack of rainfall, which is not expected in the coming two weeks.
Meteorologists predict early frosts in October, which may prevent winter crops from developing well before winter.
In Argentina, dry weather persists, although farmers have started planting corn, but the lack of rainfall is limiting the pace of planting. According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), as of September 18, 7.1% of the projected 6.3 million hectares have been sown with corn. The water level in the Paraná River is at its second-lowest point for this period since 1970, causing ships to load 15% less cargo.
Recent rainfall has been favorable for southern Brazil, where soybean and corn planting has accelerated. However, central Brazil continues to experience extreme heat and drought, the worst in the past decade. Farmers are hoping for the rainy season to start within a week, but forecasts show no rainfall in the state of Mato Grosso for the next 10-14 days.
Producers may delay soybean planting until October, which would reduce the potential for a second corn and cotton crop. Hot conditions are also reducing the potential sugarcane harvest, which has already impacted global sugar prices.
In the U.S. “Corn Belt” this week, dry and hot weather contributed to the faster harvest of soybeans and corn, as well as the planting of winter wheat. Next week, a wave of rainfall is expected, which will lower temperatures and replenish moisture reserves for winter crops.
Overall, the weather conditions in the U.S. this season have been close to ideal, reflected in high yields of wheat, soybeans, and corn.
In the Central and Southern Plains, significant rainfall is expected, which will improve the condition of winter wheat crops and accelerate further planting.
Heavy rains also hit the Canadian prairies this week, causing delays in the harvest of spring wheat and canola, potentially lowering their quality.
The rains and floods that hit central and eastern Europe at the end of last week slightly damaged crops but overall increased moisture reserves ahead of winter crop planting.
Next week, another wave of rainfall, strong winds, and lower temperatures are forecast, which will slow down the planting of winter crops.
In Australia, favorable conditions for the planting of winter wheat, barley, and canola persist, with additional rainfall expected next week in all growing regions.
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