Drought cuts Turkey’s sunflower seed outlook

Sunflower oil is the most-used cooking oil in Turkey, but severe drought is forecast to cut production of the oilseed to 1.2 million tonnes in marketing year 2025-26, down more than 10% year on year, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

To compensate for this expected decline in production, sunflower seed and oil imports are forecast higher, the FAS said in its Sept. 25 report. The government has instituted lower tariffs to spur imports of these commodities throughout the marketing year.

Sunflower seed area harvested is projected at 760,000 hectares, the FAS said, which is up year-over-year by about 10% because farmers increased their spring plantings in response to strong prices, especially for sunflower seeds for crushing.

Sunflower seed consumption is expected to remain nearly unchanged from the previous year’s newly revised number at about 2.1 million, assuming an increase in sunflower seed imports to help offset the drop in production.

Imports are forecast higher year-to-year at 1 million tonnes, up 200,000 tonnes from the prior year. This forecast assumes continued availability of sunflower seeds from Black Sea countries, which have historically been the main source for Turkey’s sunflower seed imports, the FAS said.

Sunflower seed oil production is forecast at 805,000 tonnes for 2025-26, which matches the previous year’s newly revised estimate. With steady demand for feed rations, sunflower meal production is seen unchanged at 1 million tonnes.

“Sunflower oil consumption is forecast higher year-to-year at about 1.4 million, because there will be less olive oil available in the marketplace since the olive production cycle will be an off-year in MY 2025-26,” the FAS said. “This projection also assumes stable vegetable oil demand in the domestic market.”

Sunflower seed oil imports are forecast at 1.55 million tonnes, which is up 300,000 tonnes from 2024-25, to help offset the expected decline in production of vegetable oil made from domestic sunflower seeds.

Tags: Turkey, drought, sunseed, crop forecast