Drought could cause China’s lowest wheat harvest since 2018

In 2025, China’s wheat harvest could fall by 5% to 133-135 million tons, the lowest since 2018, due to a prolonged drought and high temperatures that have hit key agricultural provinces, Bloomberg reported, citing a survey of traders and analysts.
“The weather has really become abnormal – there is no rain when it is needed,” said a farmer from Hebei province named Li.
According to him, additional irrigation saved the wheat crop, but now farmers are waiting for rains to sow corn in late June.
Despite the expected decline in production, experts do not predict a serious shortage – this is due to large stocks and weak domestic demand. However, this is an unpleasant signal for the government, which is betting on food security.
The Chinese government is already responding to the situation, mobilizing farmers to increase irrigation and providing emergency funds, but rising costs are burdening low-profit farms. The problems are also being exacerbated by pest infestations, according to state media.
Discover more about аgri market developments at the 11 International Conference BLACK SEA OIL TRADE on September 23 in Bucharest! Join agribusiness professionals from 25+ countries for a powerful start of the oilseed season!
Read also
EU rapeseed processing falls to three-year low as processors switch to soybeans
Ukraine reduced grain exports by a quarter in MY 2024/25
MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, June 20 – 27, 2025
Corn prices on the CBOT are falling in anticipation of a large supply of the new crop
Sergey Feofilov, UkrAgroConsult, to speak at GLOBAL GRAIN MENA
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon