Drought Again Ruins Hopes for Good Grain Harvest in North African Countries

Since November 2024, North African countries have been experiencing severe moisture deficits, according to a report by the European Agency for Agricultural Research (MARS). The drought gradient increases from east to west, from Tunisia to Morocco. Irreversible yield losses have occurred in Morocco and Algeria.

Significant rainfall in the second half of January partially offset the moisture deficit along the Mediterranean coast in eastern Algeria and in Tunisia. In some areas of Morocco, by contrast, rainfall in the second half of January was the lowest since 1991. This information was confirmed by a recent statement by the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture.

The current season has become the sixth in a row with severe moisture deficits during the development of winter crops in Morocco. Satellite data indicate a delay in sowing due to autumn drought, followed by weak emergence and vegetation phases. Unfavorable conditions for sowing have probably led to a reduction in the sowing area. A prolonged negative anomaly in crop biomass accumulation is observed across the country.

Autumn drought conditions historically foreshadow low yields in Morocco. MARS forecasts a similar scenario to last year. Yields will most likely be well below the long-term average. Even if significant rainfall occurs in the coming weeks, the chances of recovery are minimal, as crop damage is likely to be irreversible in most parts of Morocco.

In Algeria, planting was delayed in the northwest due to dry conditions, while it proceeded normally in the rest of the country.

Due to persistent dry conditions, biomass accumulation is well below average in the agricultural areas of the northwest. Rain is urgently needed in these areas to avoid crop failure.

In the central coastal areas of the country, despite moderate rainfall deficits, biomass accumulation is approximately equal to average in most cereal producing areas.

In the north-eastern regions, below-average soil moisture conditions are delaying crop development. Additional rainfall will soon be needed to support crop growth.

MARS forecasts that wheat yields in Algeria will be below the five-year average, while barley yields will be above average.

In Tunisia, weather conditions were much more favorable. MARS forecasts that Tunisia’s wheat yields could exceed the five-year average by 3%, while barley yields could exceed the five-year average by 5%.

Areas where drought will reduce yields

Tags: barley, wheat, Morocco, crop forecast, Algeria, Tunisia