Despite USDA experts raising their estimate of world soybean stocks in 2023/24 and 2024/25, stock quotes rose

In the April supply and demand report, USDA experts reduced the forecast for global oilseed production in MY 2024/25 by 2.75 million tons to 676.62 million tons (657.26 million tons in MY 2023/24 ), in particular cotton – by 1.93 million tons, rapeseed – by 0.45 million tons, and soybeans – by 0.2 million tons. At the same time, the forecast for global ending stocks of oilseeds was increased by 1.34 million tons to 140.48 million tons, which will exceed the previous season’s figure by 3.2%.

In the soybean balance, USDA experts sharply increased the estimate of opening stocks, which, even against the background of an increase in the consumption forecast, increased the estimate of ending stocks and should increase the pressure on quotes.

Compared to March estimates, the world soybean balance for the MY 2024/25 has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of opening stocks was increased by 2.72 million tons to 115.27 million tons (101.79 million tons in MY 2023/24) after adjusting the soybean balance for Brazil for MY 2023/24 and increasing the harvest estimate by 1.5 million tons to 154.5 million tons.
• The global production forecast is reduced by 0.2 to 420.58 million tonnes (396.4 million tonnes in MY 2023/24 and 378.4 million tonnes in MY 2022/23) due to a reduced harvest in Bolivia, which is partially offset by increased harvests in South Africa, the United Arab Emirates and the EU.
• The forecast for global consumption has been increased by 1.51 million tons to 410.67 million tons (383.3 million tons in 2023/24 MY), in particular for Brazil – by 1 million tons to 61.1 (58.3) million tons, and for Argentina – by 0.5 million tons to 50.1 (43.8) million tons due to increased domestic processing.
• Estimates of world exports and imports were left at 182.12 (177.7) million tons and 179.4 (178.1) million tons, only for Ukraine the forecast for soybean exports was reduced by 0.3 million tons to 3.9 million tons due to increased domestic processing.
• The forecast for world ending stocks has been increased by 1 million tons to 122.47 million tons (analysts estimated them at 122.1 million tons), in particular for Brazil – by 0.8 million tons and the EU – by 0.6 million tons, which compensates for the decrease in stocks in Argentina by 0.3 million tons.

Based on the report, May soybean futures in Chicago rose 1.6% to $378.1/t (+1.7% compared to data after the March report), and November futures rose 0.8% to $369.2/t. The increase was mostly speculative and was caused by the postponement of the imposition of 90% tariffs for all countries except China.

Export sales of soybeans from the US for the week ending April 3 fell to an 8-week low of 172.3 thousand tons (of which 141.3 thousand tons went to China), indicating a decline in demand due to tariff uncertainty that will continue in the coming months.

USDA experts left soybean production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina at 169 million tons and 49 million tons, respectively, while the Brazilian agency CONAB increased its forecast for the soybean harvest in Brazil by 0.5 to 167.87 million tons, and the Rosario Grains exchange lowered its estimate for the soybean harvest in Argentina by 1 million tons to 45.5 million tons.