Despite the decline in stock prices, export prices for corn in Ukraine continue to grow, although the pressure on them is increasing
Corn Prices, which last week were actively growing after oil prices, declined amid profit-taking by traders. But in Ukraine, amid a shortage of supply and rising feed wheat prices, corn export prices continued to rise, and on Monday rose another $5-6/t to 198-202/t or 9350-9500 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports. Processors raised their purchase prices to 8500-8800 UAH/t with delivery to the plant to compete with exporters.
In September, Ukraine exported only 428 thousand tons of corn, which is lower than in previous seasons. However, in October 1-9, the exports increased to 312 thsd tonnes (168 thsd tonnes in the same period last year), and in general in 2024/25 MY reached 3.08 mln tonnes (2.85 mln tonnes). The main buyers of Ukrainian corn are the EU countries – Italy, the Netherlands and Greece.
In July-September, the EU imported 5.2 mln tonnes of corn (4.6 mln tonnes in the same period last year), including 50% from Ukraine (46% last year).
During the week, Russia attacked Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea three times and damaged several ships, killing sailors and port workers. Further attacks may lead to higher insurance premiums for ships entering the ports, which will result in export prices decreasing by 5-20 USD/t.
Due to drought and heat in Brazil as of September 27, corn first crop planted only 31.4% of the area (36.6% last year), and soybeans – 2% (4%). Late sowing of soybeans may delay the sowing of corn of the second crop and reduce the acreage.
December corn futures on the Chicago stock exchange for the week fell 2.6% to 165,7 $/t (+4.2% for the month), but the fall may accelerate the decline in oil prices by 5.6% in two days and favorable weather for harvesting in the United States, and a possible increase in the yield forecast in Friday’s USDA report.
November corn futures on the stock exchange in Paris for the week fell by only 1.4% to 213,25 €/t or 233 $/t (+6.4% for the month), as they have support from the reduction of the harvest in the Eastern EU and poor quality corn due to the high content of aflatoxins.
In the United States on October 6, corn harvested on 30% of the area (with traders’ expectations of 34% and the 5-year average of 27%). Dry and warm weather in the coming weeks will accelerate the collection and reduce losses.
Increased rainfall in Brazil reduces the speculative impact on prices of the weather factor. According to Conab, 26% of the area has already been planted with corn of the first harvest (27% last year). According to Safras&Mercado, corn sales in the country in 2024 amounted to 59%, which is almost the same as last year’s 59.9%, but lower than the 5-year average of 67.4%. This means that farmers are confident in the new harvest and are ready to sell it at low current prices.
The lack of active demand for corn from China, increased harvest in the US, accelerated sowing in Brazil and the risk of higher insurance premiums for ships in Ukrainian ports may soon push down grain prices in Ukraine.
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