Despite the collapse of stock market quotes, corn prices in Ukraine continued to grow

Ukrainian farmers continue to restrain corn sales, getting higher prices, as traders have increased purchase prices by 10-15 USD/t over the past month due to lower freight and transshipment costs in ports.

Cost of transportation of panamax corn from the ports of Ukraine to South China decreased from 40-50 $/t to 32-35 $/t amid declining import demand from China.

During the week, corn prices in the ports of the Black sea increased by another 200-300 UAH/t to 10500-10600 UAH/t or 222-225 $/t, which corresponds to the level of prices for feed wheat and barley.

Corn exports in February continued to slow down, and in the first 24 days amounted to 1.74 million tons against 2.46 million tons last year. In general, in 2024/25 MY (as of February 24), Ukraine exported 14.13 mln tonnes of corn, which is 9.2% down from last year’s 15.44 mln tonnes. By the end of the season, Ukraine can export about 9 mln tons of the grain, but competition with Argentina will increase in April and with Brazil in August.

The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk shipping index, which measures rates, rose on Friday (for the seventh consecutive session) by 40 p to a monthly high of 981 p. The Panamax index, which tracks vessels with a carrying capacity of 60-70 thousand tons, rose by 26 p to a 3-month high of 1170 p, and the Supramax index (for smaller vessels) rose by 20 p to 886 p, continuing a 14-day rise.

Accelerated planting in Brazil and rains in Argentina stopped the speculative growth of world corn prices. According to AgRural, as of February 20, in Brazil, corn second crop planted 64% of the planned area, which corresponds to the average 5-year average. The dry weather next week will allow to complete the planting in the optimal time with significant soil moisture reserves.

Yesterday, March corn futures fell:

• on the CBOT exchange in Chicago – by 1.9% to 190 $/t (-2.7% for the week), returning to the level of the previous month,
• on the Euronext exchange in Paris – by 0.5% to 215.25 €/t or 225.4 $/t (+0.7% per week, +0.7% per month).

The U.S. corn exports in 2024/25 MY amounted to 24.87 mln tonnes, up 32.3% compared to last year. However, according to the USDA forecasts, over the next six months, the country will need to export about 37 mln tonnes of corn, which will increase the pressure on the world prices, especially against the background of the projected increase in the planted areas.

According to CoBank forecasts, U.S. farmers will increase corn acreage by 4.2% to 94.5 million acres in spring 2025 amid high grain prices, limited global stocks, rising demand and record ethanol production. At the same time, soybean planting areas will decrease by 3.6% to 84 million acres, spring wheat – by 5.9% to 10 million acres, sorghum – by 9.5% to 5.7 million acres.

Ukrainian farmers should take advantage of the current high corn prices and speed up sales, as low prices for European corn may reduce demand for expensive corn from Ukraine in March-April amid strong sales of new crop from Argentina.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, prices