Despite lower forecasts for global corn production and stocks in the USDA report, stock prices remained unchanged, as the crop estimate for the US was unexpectedly raised

In the September balance of supply and demand, USDA experts again lowered their forecasts for global corn production and stocks in MY 2024/25. However, the market hardly reacted to this, given the unexpected increase in the US crop forecast.

Analysts expected the decrease in the estimates of corn acreage and yield from 183.1 to 182.4 bushels/acre, but USDA experts left the acreage unchanged and raised the yield forecast to 183.6 bushels/acre (11.51 t/ha), and, accordingly, production – by 1 mln tonnes to 385.73 mln tonnes (389.7 mln tonnes last year).

Compared to the August estimates, the new corn balance for MY 2024/25 has undergone the following changes:

• Estimate of the beginning stocks increased by 1.11 to 309.63 mln tonnes (302.82 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24) after adjusting the balance for MY 2023/24.
• The forecast for global production was lowered by 1.25 to 1218.57 million tons (1224.33 million tons in MY 2023/24 and 1160 million tons in MY 2022/23), in particular for the EU – by 1.5 to 59 (61.45) million tons (especially for Romania and Hungary), Serbia – by 0.3 to 5.5 million tons, Russia – by 0.6 to 13.5 (16.6) million tons. At the same time, the forecast for the United States was raised by 1 to 385.7 (389.7) million tons, and for Ukraine it was left at 27.2 (32.5) million tons, although local agencies estimate the harvest at 23-25 million tons.
• The forecast for global consumption was increased by 1.68 to 1219.85 (1217.52) million tons (especially for Mexico and Brazil), which will exceed production.
  The estimate of world exports was lowered by 0.1 to 191.37 (199.73) million tons, in particular for Russia – by 0.4 to 3.8 (6.2) million tons and Serbia – by 0.2 to 3.3 million tons, while for Canada the forecast was raised by 0.2 to 1.9 million tons.
• The estimate of world imports was lowered by 0.45 to 185.4 (192.53) million tons, in particular for China – by 2 to 21 (23.5) million tons, while for the EU the forecast was increased by 1 to 19 (19.5) million tons.
• The forecast for world ending stocks was lowered by 1.82 to 308.35 (309.63) million tons, in particular for China – by 1.5 to 211.3 million tons and the United States – by 0.4 to 52.3 (46) million tons. At the same time, analysts estimated them at 309.4 million tons.

According to the report, December corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade increased by 0.3% to 159.23 $/t (+0.7% compared to the data after the release of the August report).

In the balance for MY 2023/24, USDA experts left unchanged the forecasts of corn production in South America. In particular, for Argentina the forecast was left at 50 mln tonnes (although local agencies estimate the harvest at 47-48 mln tonnes), and for Brazil – at 122 mln tonnes, while the official agency Conab estimates the harvest at 115.72 mln tonnes.

Increase in the shortage of corn supplies from the black sea countries will support the price of Ukrainian corn at a high level, and the adjustment of crop forecasts for South America and the United States may lead to growth of stock prices.

Ukrainian farmers also exported 1 mln 163 thsd tons of barley and 7.5 thsd tons of rye.

Exports of Ukrainian corn amounted to 2 mln 498 thsd tons, which is 187 thsd tons or almost 8.0% more than last year.

In addition, 14.4 thousand tons of flour (or 19.2 thsd tons in terms of grain) were shipped abroad, which is 14.4 thsd tons or more than half as much as last year.

Tags: USA, Argentina, Ukraine, Hungary, Russia, crop forecast, corn, Romania, Brazil, EU, prices, Serbia, USDA Report