Demand from China and Turkey supports the barley market

The Ukrainian barley market remains relatively stable, but the grain supply is gradually decreasing. Against this background, the activation of external demand and uncertainty about the new harvest create the prerequisites for a possible increase in prices in the coming weeks. This is reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, established within the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council.

According to analysts, on the domestic market, conditional prices for barley are currently around UAH 10,800–11,000/t. “However, in recent weeks, the grain supply has noticeably decreased. Most farmers have actually suspended sales not only of barley, but also of wheat and rapeseed. The main reason is the uncertainty about the new harvest and the state of crops after the winter period. Until the market receives clearer information about the overwintering of crops, producers are in no hurry to conclude new agreements,” PUSK explains.

Against the backdrop of limited supply, external demand for Ukrainian barley is gradually increasing. “There is already a certain shortage of barley on the global market. Demand for Ukrainian grain remains, in particular from Turkey. An additional factor supporting the market may be the situation with crops in other producing countries. Problems are being recorded in France due to excessive humidity, and in Romania, partial reports of crop losses are being made. Weather risks also persist in the Black Sea region,” analysts note. Demand from China may be an additional factor supporting prices. “

The estimated price of Ukrainian barley supplies to China is currently around $205–208/t CPT-port, while recent buyer requests were at the level of $202–205/t. The emergence of such indicators may indicate the formation of more stable demand from Chinese importers,” the PUSK believes. Given these factors, March and the first half of April may be a period of formation of an upward price trend in the barley market, if external demand persists and supply from farmers remains limited.

Tags: Ukraine, China, Turkey, export, barley