Demand for wheat is growing in Ukraine amid limited supply and active exports

Delayed harvest and poor yields in the south continue to support the market. Export prices for wheat at ports are rising as farmers hold back sales in anticipation of peak prices.

Since the beginning of the week, purchase prices for food wheat have increased by $2–3/t — to UAH 10,300–10,400/t ($215–219/t) . Prices for feed wheat — by $4–5/t — to UAH 10,000–10,100/t ($210–214/t) . Due to the high quality of the harvested wheat, the supply of feed wheat remains limited.

Forecasts of precipitation in the western and central regions of Ukraine for the coming week may slow down the pace of harvesting and slightly worsen quality, but no significant negative impact is expected.

Prices are also supported by the results of the latest tender in Algeria. On July 15, the state agency OAIC purchased over 1 million tons of food wheat at prices of $253–257/ton C&F (≈$230/ton FOB), with delivery in September–October. The main volumes are expected from the Black Sea region, including Ukraine.

For comparison: in the June tender, 550 thousand tons were purchased at ≈245 $/ton C&F, and in March — 450 thousand tons at 268.5 $/ton C&F.

Trading activity on the Ukrainian market remains high, and analysts expect further strengthening of quotations in the coming weeks. In the future, a gradual leveling of prices to the level of $220/t FOB for food wheat is possible.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat