Demand for vegetable oils in China will decline in MY 2025/26

According to a report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), total vegetable oil demand for food purposes in China is projected to decline by 4.1% in 2025/26 to 34.7 million tons, 1.9% below the 2024/25 season estimate of 35.36 million tons.

The USDA’s September 26 report, “China: Oilseeds and Commodity Data Update,” stated that the main factors driving the projected decline in vegetable oil consumption were a decline in restaurant visits due to economic concerns, increased awareness of the importance of a healthy lifestyle, and a shrinking and aging population.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s GDP growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%. Revenue from the catering industry reached 2.75 trillion yuan (US$387 billion) in the first half of 2025, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year. However, the monthly growth rate slowed to 0.9% in June. Tighter catering regulations are expected to impact the hotel, restaurant, and institutional sector, leading to a decline in vegetable oil consumption.

According to the 2024 China Population Report, the population has declined for the third consecutive year, decreasing by 1.39 million compared to 2023. Meanwhile, approximately 9.54 million babies were born in China in 2024, an increase of 5.7% from the previous year. This is the first increase in the birth rate in China in nearly 10 years. The agency also notes that China’s population is aging. In 2020, Chinese people aged 60 and over accounted for 18.7% of the total population, rising to 22% in 2024. The report states that older consumers tend to consume less oil and will buck the trend of rising consumption driven by urbanization and rising per capita GDP.

Livestock feed vegetable oil consumption in 2025/26 remained at 1.3 million tonnes, also unchanged from 2024/25.

According to USDA sources, the decline in overall vegetable oil consumption, including palm oil, may also be due to reduced demand for used cooking oil (UCO) exports.

Vegetable oil imports in 2024/25, according to the agency, decreased from 9.7 million tonnes to 6.4 million tonnes in the previous report due to a significant reduction in palm and sunflower oil purchases. The forecast for vegetable oil imports for 2025/26 is 6 million tons.

According to the report, vegetable oil purchases are limited by sufficient domestic processing of oilseeds and weak consumption.

Tags: sunflower oil, soybean oil, palm oil, imports, edible oils, China