Demand for Ukrainian corn may increase significantly due to the introduction of tariffs in the US

President Trump imposed a basic 10% tariff on all goods imported into the United States on April 5. And on April 9, tariffs of 10-34% will come into effect for countries that tax US exports, including major US trading partners, including buyers of American agricultural products. Thus, a 25% tariff has been set for goods from South Korea, 54% from China, 24% from Japan, and 20% from the EU. For Mexico and Canada, the 25% tariffs announced in early March will come into effect. If China continues to buy Venezuelan oil, tariffs on its goods could rise to 79%.

However, such actions threaten countermeasures, and China has already retaliated by imposing a 15% tariff on corn and 10% on soybeans from the US since March 10. The EU is considering imposing a tariff on soybeans and a 25% tariff on corn, as well as strengthening environmental requirements that would limit imports of products grown using chemicals banned in the EU.

Against this background, Brazil is gaining new prospects for exporting its agricultural products. Its strong ties with China, the EU and Southeast Asia, competitive prices and forecasts of a good harvest in the 2024/25 MY will allow it to capture some of the buyers of American agricultural goods. Argentina is also strengthening its position thanks to high harvests, a favorable exchange rate and an active export strategy, especially in Asia and the Middle East.

If major importers impose tariffs on American corn, demand for Ukrainian corn will increase significantly, as it has a competitive price, well-established supply logistics, and strong ties with the EU and Asia. Brazil will become the main supplier of corn on the world market, but it will not be able to satisfy the demand of all buyers who will abandon American grain, which will open up new prospects for Ukraine.

Of the major U.S. exports, soybeans and corn are at the epicenter of the trade wars. Now Mexico, Japan, China, the EU, and South Korea, which bought tens of millions of tons of corn from the U.S., are preparing for countersanctions.

The American Farmers Federation warns farmers of possible increases in production costs, loss of markets and falling prices. Small farmers working at the edge of profitability will be the most vulnerable.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, export, prices