Demand for Ukrainian corn is declining as buyers prefer cheaper US grain
The sharp rise in prices for Ukrainian corn caused by the decline in production has significantly increased the demand for cheap US corn.
According to the USDA, the export sales of corn from the USA for October 10-17 increased to 3.6 mln tonnes, which is 62% higher than the average of the previous 4 weeks. In general, in 2024/25 MY the corn exports reached 17.5 mln tonnes, while the forecast was 59 mln tonnes (compared to 13 mln tonnes in the same period last year).
Amid rising demand, December corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 4% to $165/t (+1.7% for the month).
Favorable weather and high rates of harvesting in the United States increased the volume of supply of corn on the market, which increases the pressure on the quotes.
the Consumption of corn for ethanol production for the week increased by 3.7% to 2.73 million tons, and in General in the season reached 18 million tons (with the USDA forecast of 138.5 million tons), which corresponds to last year’s processing rates, so did not support the quotes.
the Increase in precipitation in Central Brazil accelerates the sowing of soybeans and removes concerns about the possible delay of sowing corn second crop, which reduces speculative pressure on prices.
the Increase in the supply of cheap corn from Brazil and the United States and reduced demand from China has led to a drop in export prices of demand for corn in Ukraine, which in the ports of the black sea fell to 195-198 $/t or 9000-9250 UAH/t, although recently reached 205-208 $/t.
Since the beginning of September, the price of Ukrainian corn increased by 15% to 200 $/t, while the price of American corn in Chicago – by 2.9% to 165 $/t, and the European corn in Paris – by 6% to 228.6 $/t.
In MY 2024/25 (as of October 21), Ukraine exported 3.84 mln tonnes of corn, up 13% compared to the same period last year (3.4 mln tonnes), but the rate of supply is gradually decreasing.
Ukrainian farmers are actively selling wheat and sunflower amid high prices, so traders need to keep corn prices high to buy the necessary volumes.
Got additional questions?
We will be happy to assist!
Write to us
Our manager will contact you soon