Delaying harvest until late October will support corn prices in Ukraine

The cessation of prolonged rainfall in Ukraine has accelerated the harvest of sunflower and soybeans, but due to high humidity and farmers’ efforts to harvest sunflower first, the harvest of corn is slow, which continues to delay deliveries to the port and keeps purchase prices high.

As of October 16, 4.913 million tons of corn were harvested in Ukraine from 21% of the area (+6% per week) or 895 thousand hectares of area with a yield of 5.49 tons/hectare, although last year at this time 13.2 million tons were threshed from 59% of the area with a yield of 5.5 tons/hectare.

This season, due to high humidity, some of the corn has not ripened, and there is also a deterioration in quality due to damaged and broken grains, but the yield is predicted to be quite high.

Export demand prices for corn in Ukraine remained at $202-204/t or UAH 9,500-9,650/t for delivery to Black Sea ports during the week, with traders reporting that sales are accelerating and the volumes needed for November have already been practically purchased, and higher prices are being offered for spot deliveries in October.

It is worth noting that processors are also offering high prices for corn at the level of 8500-9100 UAH/t delivered to factories, which is holding back deliveries to the port. Demand prices for corn on the western border continue to decline and have already fallen to 182-183 €/t or 211-212 $/t FCA – loaded into a Eurocar at the Hungarian or Slovak border for delivery in November.

Cheap American and Brazilian corn is crowding out expensive Ukrainian corn from traditional markets, so we expect a decline in export demand in November and December and a decline in prices.As of October 13, the EU imported 4.3 million tons of corn, of which 2.4 million tons were from Brazil, 900 thousand tons from the USA, and 720 thousand tons from Ukraine, with Ukraine’s share decreasing to 17% compared to 50% last season.December corn futures in Chicago rose 1.5% to $165.2/t during the week (-0.5% for the month), supported by active corn exports from the US.

During the week of October 10-16, corn exports from the United States grew by 9% to 1.32 million tons, and in total in the 2025/26 MY reached 9.4 million tons, which is 61% higher than last year’s pace and is 12% of the export forecast for the season (75.6 million tons).

According to Atria Brokers, the prospects for Ukrainian corn exports to China are becoming increasingly bleak: demand from the Asian giant remains weak compared to previous seasons due to a high local harvest. At the same time, Brazil’s strong price competitiveness has effectively destroyed Ukraine’s chances for new contracts. From July to September, China imported about 10-12 Panamax of Brazilian corn, having already used up part of its import quota of 7.2 million tons for 2025. Of this volume, only about 40% is available to the private sector, while about 2 million tons are reserved for non-GMO corn. The latest prices for Brazilian corn for shipment in the second half of November are about $245/t CIF – Chinese ports, while Ukrainian corn is offered at $213/t FOB, plus $46-47/t freight to South China, i.e. together about $259/t CIF.

In an international tender on Tuesday, a South Korean group of importers, including Feedmill Group and Cargill Agri Purina, purchased about 67,000 tons of feed corn at a price of about $246.6/ton C&F for delivery in February 2026.