Delayed soybean harvest in Argentina keeps prices high

Heavy rains in March and April delayed the soybean harvest in Argentina, and analysts expect the crop to be reduced due to flooding. But the rains have improved crop conditions, which will boost yields, and drier weather in the coming weeks should speed up the harvest.

May soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 4.5% last week and were trading at $382/t this week amid improving weather in Argentina and accelerated planting in the US.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of April 9, soybeans had been harvested in Argentina on only 2.6% of the area, compared to 10.6% last year. 21% of soybean crops are in poor or very poor condition (23% last week, 25% last year), 42% (41; 45)% are in satisfactory condition, and 37% (36; 30)% are in good or excellent condition.

In the north of the province of La Pampa and in the west of Buenos Aires, crops were partially affected by frost, but the damage is still being assessed. The average soybean yield is currently 3.54 t/ha. Exchange experts left the forecast for soybean production in the country at 48 million t, while the USDA estimates it at 49 million t.

According to NASS USDA, as of April 20, 8% of the planned area has been sown with soybeans in the US (5% on average over 5 years).

US Treasury Secretary Bessant said that a deal with China could be reached, which supported soybean prices.

In Ukraine, prices for soybeans and their processed products are supported by the EU market, but competition is intensifying there with cheaper and higher-quality soybeans and meal from Brazil.

During the period from July 1 to April 20, EU countries increased soybean imports by 9% to 11.22 million tonnes compared to the same period of the previous season, of which 52% were supplied from the USA (50% last year), 33% from Brazil (33%) and 7.9% from Ukraine (11.8%). Imports of meal during this period increased by 26% from 12.02 to 15.14 million tonnes, of which 62% were supplied from Brazil (50% last year), 19.5% from Argentina (37%) and 3.4% from Ukraine (4.7%).