December WASDE forecast values increased for oilseeds and oils for MY 2024/25

In its December WASDE forecast, the USDA raised its global oilseeds production for 2024/25 mainly due to higher soybean production, partially offset by a decline in rapeseed production to the lowest levels of the last three seasons. Sunseed production forecasts were raised for Ukraine and Russia, but offset by a serious decline in the EU.

Sunseed

The forecast for the global sunflower seed harvest remained stable at 50.5 million tons compared to 56 million tons last year. However, analysts revised upwards the forecast of sunseed production in Ukraine by 400 thousand tons to 12.9 million tons and in Russia by 300 thousand tons to 16.3 million tons, although both harvests are lower than last season.
These increases were offset by a decrease in the forecast of sunseed production in the EU – by 650 thousand tons to 8.8 million tons.

The global consumption of sunflower seeds in the current season was increased from 51.2 mln tonnes to 51.3 mln tonnes due to the increase in the forecast for Ukraine – to 12.7 (+0.4) mln tonnes, and Russia – to 16.3 (+0.3) mln tonnes. The forecast for the EU was lowered to 9.1 (-0.6) million tons.
As for the world ending stocks, WASDE left them at 2.2 million tons.

Rapeseed

The forecast for world rapeseed production was lowered by 1 million tons to 86.18 million tons.The canola production forecast was lowered for Canada by 1.2 million tons to 18.8 million tons, which is still higher than the latest StatsCan forecast (17.8 million tons). The forecast was also slightly lowered for the EU to 17.2 (-0.1) million tons. At the same time, WASDE slightly increased its forecast for canola production for Australia to 5.6 (+0.1) mln tonnes and for Ukraine to 3.75 (+0.15) mln tonnes.

The forecast of global rapeseed exports was lowered to 16.8 mln tonnes, down from 17.1 mln tonnes in November (18 mln tonnes in 2023/24 MY). At the same time, the forecast for Canada was lowered more significantly – by 0.6 mln tonnes to 6.75 mln tonnes, while the forecast for Australia and Ukraine was slightly increased. Canola exports from Australia are currently estimated at 4.75 (+0.1) mln tonnes, and from Ukraine – 3.37 (+0.15) mln tonnes.

World rapeseed processing remained unchanged at 84.5 million tons for the largest countries.

According to the WASDE estimates, the world ending stocks of rapeseed for MY 2024/25 were reduced by 859 thsd tonnes to 7.19 mln tonnes, the lowest in three seasons, mainly due to the lower forecast for Canada – to 2.2 (-0.5) mln tonnes.

Soybeans

The global forecast for soybean production and consumption was raised due to higher expectations in Argentina. Analysts raised the production and consumption forecasts for the country by 1 million tons each – to 52 million tons and 41 million tons, respectively. The harvest is expected to be the largest since MY 2018/19. For Brazil, the production forecast remained unchanged at a record 169 mln tonnes, although it was expected to be revised upwards according to local analysts. The U.S. soybean harvest also remained stable at 121.4 mln tonnes.

Global soybean exports for MY 2024/25 were only slightly increased – from 181.7 mln tonnes in November to 181.9 mln tonnes in December (177.5 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24), with no changes for key exporting countries.

The volume of soybean processing is forecasted at 347.4 mln tonnes (+1.27 mln tonnes compared to November, 330.9 mln tonnes last season), due to the increase in the forecast for Argentina – up to 41 mln tonnes (+1 mln tonnes).

Global soybean ending stocks for MY 2024/25 remained almost unchanged at 131.87 mln tonnes, compared to 131.74 mln tonnes in November (112.16 mln tonnes in MY 2023/24). However, the forecast for the EU was lowered to 1.3 mln tonnes (-0.2 mln tonnes). The increase in soybean processing volumes also means the increase in the forecast of global soybean oil production for MY 2024/25, which was increased by 371 thsd tonnes to 65.8 mln tonnes. The forecast was raised for Argentina and the United States. Also, the forecast of global soybean oil exports was increased by 552 thsd tonnes to 12.6 mln tonnes, the largest increase is for the US – 227 thsd tonnes to 499 thsd tonnes, which is the highest volume since 2021/22 MY. In addition, the forecast of soybean oil consumption was increased by 539 thsd tonnes to the record level of 65.2 mln tonnes.

The global soybean oil exports increased by 0.6 mln tonnes to 12.6 mln tonnes due to the increase in exports of Argentina, Brazil and the United States. The increase in soybean oil supplies is offset by a decline in palm oil exports, which decreased by 1.4 million tons to 46.6 million, due to reduced supplies and lower production in Indonesia in 2023/24 and Malaysia in 2024/25.

World ending stocks of oil decreased to 27.9 million tons, which is 2% less than last month and 7% less than in 2023/24.

Tags: soybean, Canada, USDA Report, sunseed, rapeseed, Argentina, Australia, crop forecast, Ukraine, Russia, Brazil, EU