Bulgarian oilseed crops show the best results amid EU states

UkrAgroConsult

The June MARS reported lower estimates of oilseed yields in the EU, mainly due to excessive rainfall in the northwestern countries:

• Sunflower yield at 2.2 t/ha (-3% m/m, 2.1 t/ha – in 2023, 2.15 t/ha – the average of the last 5 years);
• Rapeseed – down to 3.16 t/ha (-2% m/m, 3.17 t/ha in 2023, 3.17 t/ha as 5 year average).

Comparing the 2024 and 2023 yields, SFS yield forecast remains higher for the 2024 harvest and the rapeseed yield forecast remains lower for the 2024 harvest.

The weather is currently essential influencer in pricing. The lower EU forecast might support the oilseed prices, but Canadian canola,  massive rapeseed harvesting in Europe and US soybeans are limiting factor for the bullish trends.

Compared to other countries, the Bulgarian oilseed outlook for 2024 looks stable. Unfavourable weather in the spring led to a reduction in the rapeseed harvest forecast. However, both sunflower and rapeseed harvests are still expected to be higher y/y in 2024.

Bulgaria. Oilseed harvest forecast, 2024.

• Sunflower seed – (+16% y/y);
• Rapeseed – (-9% y/y).

UkrAgroConsult estimate based on stable sunflower area and 5% decrease in rapeseed area.

In the 2024/25 SFS S&D, the increase in the harvest will partially offset the lower carryover stocks compared to last season.

UkrAgroConsult does not exclude an increase in SFS imports and possibly declining SFS exports, given the increasing capacities of the domestic crushing industry.

The 2024/25 rapeseed S&D continues to look weaker, similar to the market behavior in 2016/17.

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Tags: supply and demand balance, crop forecast, Bulgaria, EU, prices, sunseed, rapeseed, crop condition