Could the EUDR stop the expansion of soybean acreage?

The combined share of Brazil, the US and Argentina in soybean production is 80%. China follows with a significant margin and a share of 5%. According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), in the current marketing year, Brazil is expected to harvest a record soybean crop of about 169 million tons, up from 153 million tons a year earlier. With the expansion of the area by 1.3 mln hectares to 47.4 mln hectares, Brazil further strengthens its leading position ahead of the US.

Brazil is currently in the midst of harvesting soybeans. By February 7, 2025, about 15.1% of the area had been harvested, slightly less than the long-term average of 18.4% at that time. At the moment, reports show that more than satisfactory returns are expected. In the U.S., the soybean harvest was already completed at the end of 2024. About 118.8 mln tons were harvested there, which is about 5.6 mln tons more than in the previous year and is expected to be the largest harvest in the last 3 years.

Argentina, which is the third largest producer in the world, is also likely to thresh more area than last year. According to a study by Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft (mbH), the harvest is expected to reach 49 million tons, which is about 790 thousand tons more than last year. According to the latest estimates of the US Department of Agriculture, China is expected to produce 20.7 million tons, which is about 190 thousand tons less than last year.

Given the steady increase in the area used for soybean cultivation, the German Union for the Promotion of Oilseeds and Grains (UFOP) questions the possible regulatory impact of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) on global markets. The UFOP also expresses concerns about the further expansion of soybean sales flows from Brazil to the European Union.

It is unclear whether the EUDR and companies’ voluntary commitments to protect primary forests will have any environmental impact unless forest and biodiversity rules are harmonized simultaneously for all global commodity flows, given the EUDR deadline, which has been extended to the end of 2025.

Tags: USA, Argentina, restrictions, China, EU, soybean