Corn production in China continues to grow

China’s corn production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 298 million tonnes, up 3 million tonnes from last year. Rising yields and stable plantings are boosting volumes, while imports continue to decline due to government policies aimed at supporting self-sufficiency, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) said in a report.

In its latest Grain and Feed Survey, FAS lowered its corn import forecast for 2025-26 to 7 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from its previous estimate. For 2024/25, the forecast was revised down to 2 million tonnes, down from 23.4 million tonnes in 2023-24.

“The Chinese government continues to stimulate local production by increasing yields on stable areas and restricting grain imports to protect the interests of local farmers,” FAS notes.

The forecast for corn consumption in MY 2025/26 remains at 321 million tons, which is 1% higher than in 2024-25. The growth in consumption is due to the return of traditional corn norms to feed rations, low prices that stimulate industrial processing, and government policies that limit the import of corn substitutes.

In China, corn is mainly used for feed (67%) and industrial processing (26%). Consumption for feed purposes in 2025-26 is forecast to grow by about 1%. In 2024, feed production in China amounted to 313 million tons, in 2025 – 322 million tons are expected.

According to the China National Grain and Oilseed Information Center (CNGOIC), the total corn processing capacity exceeds 130 million tons. Corn deep processing is growing in northern regions with a capacity increase of 3% compared to 2024, but the slowdown in the ethanol sector is limiting consumption growth.

According to the China Starch Industry Association, in 2024, about 85 million tons of corn were used for deep processing, producing 48 million tons of starch and more than 20 million tons of starch sugar.

Wheat production is forecast at 140 million tons, 1 million tons lower than the previous report, with 35 million tons allocated for feed use as the price gap with corn narrows. Total area, yield and volume remain stable. Wheat consumption is expected to be 152 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared to 2024/25. Primary consumption remains stable, while feed use is increasing.

“China’s consumption of wheat for food purposes is slowing due to an aging and shrinking population, as well as changes in diets, which are limiting flour use and putting small-scale mills at risk,” FAS said.

Paddy rice production in 2025/26 is forecast at 208 million tonnes, up 1 million tonnes from last year, thanks to stable acreage and higher yields. Rice consumption is expected to be 147 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes, including from older stocks for feed and industrial use.

Tags: China, corn, rice, wheat, crop forecast