According to projections by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Mexico’s corn production and imports are expected to reach around 26 million tons during the MY 2025/26, which began in October. This reflects the country’s persistent external dependence amid pressures on agri-food supply chains and regional trade policy.
Compared to the previous year, production is set to grow by 11.6%, while imports will rise by 0.3%. In monetary terms, corn imports to Mexico have increased 132% over the past decade—from $2.459 billion in 2015 to $5.709 billion in 2025—most of which is supplied by the United States. This trend highlights the structural deficit in domestic production and the critical role of foreign trade in stabilizing the market.
Mexico is expected to import about 26 million tons of corn, with approximately 97% being yellow corn due to its higher energy content, competitive pricing, and consistent availability. Developed cross-border rail infrastructure enhances logistical efficiency and reduces transportation costs, supporting agro-industrial supply chains.
The predominance of imported yellow corn is driven by industrial efficiency criteria. North American production integration strengthens regional supply chains, particularly under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), providing regulatory certainty and limiting tariff risks. Over 99% of Mexico’s corn imports come from the U.S., further deepening bilateral agri-food interdependence.
High external dependence poses strategic challenges for Mexico: how to stimulate domestic productivity, and how input costs, recurring droughts, and limited infrastructure affect agricultural competitiveness. For the agro-industrial and food processing sectors, a stable grain supply is crucial, while supplier diversification and production modernization are becoming key strategic priorities for the medium term.
