Corn prices in Ukraine rise amid delayed harvest

Corn ripening in Ukraine this season is delayed by 2-3 weeks, and a cold snap and possible precipitation in late September may postpone the mass harvest of corn to a later date. This continues to worry traders who sold significant shipments for export with delivery in September and October.

Producers are actively harvesting sunflower seeds and soybeans, trying to complete the work before the rains so as not to lose the harvest, so they are not actively selling, which contributes to rising prices.

Export demand prices for corn increased by 200-400 UAH/t per week to 9650-9900 UAH/t or $205-210/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, although some traders offered prices up to $212-215/t for large batches and super-fast delivery in September.

As the harvest increases and the supply of corn increases, prices are stabilizing, as they do not yet have factors for further growth amid increasing competition.

In the 2024/2025 MY, Turkey became the largest buyer of Ukrainian corn, importing 5.5 million tons of products. Currently, the role of Turkey as one of the key importers of Ukrainian corn has come into question. Market experts suggest that against the backdrop of the recovery of the corn harvest in Russia, Russian sellers may win back part of the Turkish market, reducing the presence of Ukraine.

December corn futures in Chicago have remained virtually unchanged over the week, trading at $167/t (+2.9% month-on-month), ignoring the increase in US production forecasts to a record level.

Hot and dry weather in the US corn belt, forecast for the next 7-10 days, will accelerate harvesting and increase corn supplies on the world market, increasing seasonal pressure on prices.

It is worth noting that November corn futures on the Paris exchange fell by 1.9% to €186.25/t or $219/t (-2% month-on-month) in the week, despite forecasts of a reduced corn harvest in the EU. The main reason for this is the increase in the wheat harvest to a record level, which will allow it to replace feed corn.

Precipitation in Brazil began earlier, which contributes to the active sowing of the first corn crop and the accumulation of moisture for early sowing of soybeans, as well as the formation of conditions for sowing the second corn crop at the optimal time.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices