Corn prices in Ukraine remain high due to rising world prices

Corn prices in Ukraine remain relatively high compared to global prices, due to restrained sales by farmers and increased quotations on European markets.

During the week, export prices for corn at Black Sea ports decreased by $2–3/t to $224–228/t or UAH 10,500–10,550/t, but some traders are offering a higher price for large volumes and fast delivery.

The pace of corn exports from Ukraine in April decreased sharply, and in the first week of the month, exports amounted to only 270 thousand tons (5 times less than in the same period in 2024), and in total for the season reached 17.24 million tons (16.7% less than last year’s 20.13 million tons on the same date) out of the projected 22 million tons.

It is worth recalling that the “export window” for Ukrainian corn falls on February-May, and from June, corn from Argentina (export forecast of 36 million tons) and Brazil (44 million tons) will enter the market.

In the MY 2024/25 (as of April 3), corn exports from the United States increased by 30% compared to the previous season to 35.6 million tons. By the end of the season, the country needs to export another 26.6 million tons of corn, or approximately 5.5 million tons per month, which will increase pressure on the global market, especially in the event of a reduction in supplies due to the introduction of tariffs by China or the EU in response to US actions.

May corn futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago rose 0.9% yesterday to $182.85/t (+1.5% for the week), despite a 10–12% collapse in stock indices and the imposition of tariffs against China and Japan.

December futures are trading $8/t cheaper on expectations of increased plantings. According to the first NASS Crop Progress report, as of April 6, 2% of the area sown with corn in the US was in line with the 5-year average.

On the Euronext exchange in Paris, June corn futures rose 1.2% yesterday to €212.75/t or $233.3/t (+0.8% month-on-month), amid the possible imposition of tariffs on US corn.

In the USA and EU countries, weather conditions and significant moisture reserves favor corn sowing, while in Ukraine, the extremely low moisture level in the meter layer of soil will not allow increasing the sown area. Therefore, the future harvest will largely depend on the amount of precipitation during the growing season.

The onset of the global crisis in the near future may lead to a drop in commodity prices, including grain. Therefore, Ukrainian farmers should sell their old corn stocks now, while corn prices are supported by uncertainty about the future harvest and expectations of inflationary processes, which may intensify as a result of the economic crisis in the United States.

Tags: corn, prices