Corn prices in Ukraine remain high, although they have fallen sharply in Chicago

Favorable weather for sowing soybeans and corn in South America is boosting sales of old-crop corn, which is increasing competition with American corn on international markets and leading to lower quotes in Chicago.

In Ukraine, export prices for corn for January delivery are also declining, but a supply shortage is supporting high prices for spot deliveries to the port in December.

As of November 20, 20.836 million tons of corn were harvested from 3.118 million hectares or 71% of the area in Ukraine, with a yield of 6.68 tons/hectare, while last year at this time 23.623 million tons were harvested from 94% of the area, with a yield of 6.4 tons/hectare. This confirms the harvest forecasts at 31-32 million tons.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for corn increased by another UAH 50/t to UAH 9,950-10,050/t during the week, primarily due to the strengthening of the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market, but prices in foreign currency remained at $209-210/t with delivery in November-December to Black Sea ports, while for deliveries in January, the price offered is $207-208/t.

The lack of sufficient vehicles (due to a lack of drivers) increases the cost of transportation to ports, so some manufacturers have decided to increase deliveries in January-March, when logistics will be better. Now, due to constant attacks by Russian drones and a large number of air raids, reception at ports is stopped, which reduces the rate of unloading cars and wagons and increases the cost of using wagons and rail transportation rates.

The pace of Ukrainian corn exports increased slightly in November, with 1.26 million tons exported in 24 days compared to 2.3 million tons in the same period last year. However, since the start of the 2025/26 season, only 3.12 million tons of corn have been exported, compared to 6.98 million tons last year.

December corn futures in Chicago fell 3.2% to $166.5/t (-1.3% month-on-month) amid the completion of a record corn harvest in the US and increased competition with Brazil.

According to ANEC forecasts, Brazil will export 6.11 million tons of corn in November, as farmers increase sales amid favorable weather for the new harvest and are ready to lower prices.

As of November 20, over 80% of the area in Brazil and 37% in Argentina has been sown with first-crop corn, and periodic rains are helping to complete planting and develop the crops.

This week, several South Korean importers purchased a total of at least 324,000 tons of corn in tenders, of which only 68,000 tons will be delivered from the United States, while the remaining batches purchased are cheap corn from Brazil. The South Korean Feed Manufacturers Association (KFA) bought a 68,000-ton consignment of US corn for delivery in March at $248.9/ton C&F, while on November 18 it bought US corn at $252.48/ton C&F.

The world market continues to be saturated with corn supplies, so buyers are holding back purchases in anticipation of increased competition between suppliers from the US, Brazil, and Ukraine.

Tags: corn, prices, Ukraine