Corn prices in Ukraine fall in anticipation of EU supply restrictions from June

Starting from June 6, 2025, the European Union will significantly increase import duties on Ukrainian agricultural products and will end special trade privileges that allowed the EU to import most Ukrainian goods duty-free. The quotas for duty-free supplies of corn will be reduced the most – from 4.7 million tons to 650 thousand tons per year.

Purchase export prices for corn in Ukraine this week decreased by another 300–400 UAH/t to 10,600–10,800 UAH/t (or $227–230/t) with delivery to Black Sea ports and will continue to fall to the level of prices for feed wheat (about $220/t).

Corn exports from Ukraine continue to slow down, and in the first 14 days of May, only 960,000 tons were shipped, compared to 1.89 million tons last year, and in total, 19.5 million tons were exported during the season (24.8 million tons for the same period last year).

World corn prices remain under pressure from USDA’s May report forecasting a 4 million t increase in Brazil’s crop to 130 (119 in MY 2023/24) million t, although local analysts estimate the crop at 134-135 million t. Recent tenders indicate that buyers from Southeast Asia purchased corn for August delivery at $248-250/t C&F.

July futures in Chicago fell 9.4% to $176.4/t in a month following the drop in oil prices, and even high export demand could not support them.

Quotes are being pressured by rumors that the bill to increase the mandate for biofuel production in the US will not be supported by the Administration and voted on.

US corn export sales during May 2-8 amounted to 1.68 million tons (of which 603 thousand tons to South Korea). This was the highest figure in the last 20 weeks and confirmed that cheap American corn will cover global demand until Brazilian corn enters the market in July-August.

China on May 13 signed protocols allowing imports of Brazilian DDGS (dry distillers grain, which is a useful by-product of bioethanol production) in the coming months, further increasing competition for American corn and DDGS in the Chinese market.

Long-awaited and abundant rainfall continues to replenish moisture reserves in Ukraine, which is helping crops develop, although temperatures remain below normal. This reduces concerns about a reduction in the harvest in the new season.

Tags: corn, prices, Ukraine