Corn prices in Ukraine decreased by $5-8/t under the influence of falling world prices

Accelerating soybean harvest in Brazil is contributing to rising freight prices, while active planting of second-crop corn and the US tariff wars with partners are reducing global corn quotes.

Against this background, purchase prices for corn in Ukrainian Black Sea ports decreased by $5-8/t or UAH 200-300/t during the week to UAH 10,200-10,250/t or $215-217/t, although prices for feed wheat decreased to a lesser extent.

According to the State Customs Service, in the MY 2024/25 (as of March 5), Ukraine exported 14.924 million tons of corn, which is 11% lower than the corresponding figure last year (16.569 million tons), and by the end of the season it can ship about 7-8 million tons more.

The cost of freight from Ukrainian ports increased by $1-2/t per week and is likely to continue to grow amid increased demand for transportation from South America, where harvest is accelerating.

According to AgRural, in Brazil, as of February 27, 80% of the planned area has been sown with second-crop corn, and the weather is conducive to the development of crops, so corn harvest forecasts remain high.

Under pressure from US automakers, President Trump is delaying the introduction of tariffs on cars from Mexico and Canada for a month, subject to the implementation of the USMCA trade agreement (which he himself concluded during his first term), which gives traders hope that tariffs on other goods will be lifted under market pressure.

March corn futures on the CBOT exchange in Chicago rose 0.9% to $173/t yesterday after falling 8.6% for the week, and are trading 12.5% cheaper than a month ago.

China’s introduction of a 10% mirror duty on corn and an export ban for 15 American companies will sharply reduce the supply of agricultural products from the US to China. China’s statement about its readiness for a war with the US, both tariff and any other, does not add optimism to US markets.

Ukrainian farmers are hoping for increased demand for domestic corn from China after its rejection of American grain. However, it should be noted that China has already started buying corn from Brazil and has agreed to permits for supplies from Argentina, which will not allow Ukraine to sharply increase corn supplies to China.

Therefore, Ukraine needs to accelerate corn supplies to the EU, where there is strong competition with American corn, and prices are falling.

In the MY 2024/25 (as of March 2), the EU increased corn imports compared to the corresponding period of the previous season by 8% to 13.8 million tons, of which 57% or 7.9 million tons were supplied from Ukraine (65% or 8.3 million tons a year ago), 18.5% or 2.5 million tons — from the USA (0.9% or 110 thousand tons), 12% or 1.6 million tons — from Brazil (22% or 2.8 million tons) and 6.5% or 893 thousand tons — from Canada (4.8% or 615 thousand tons). According to USDA forecasts, in the MY 2024/25 the EU will import 19.5 million tons of corn, so by the end of the season it will be necessary to purchase another 5.7 million tons, which can be supplied from Ukraine, Canada and the USA, since Brazilian corn will not appear before August.

June corn futures on the Euronext exchange in Paris fell by 3.9% to €211.75/t or $228.8/t (-5.2% per month), which will continue to restrain supplies of expensive Ukrainian corn.