Corn prices in Ukraine continue to rise despite falling prices on world markets

Export demand for corn in Ukraine continues to grow not only from the EU, but now also from Turkey, forcing exporters and processors to raise purchase prices, especially amid limited supply from farmers and rising feed wheat prices. Even a two-week drop in stock prices under pressure from better weather in South America has not yet affected prices in Ukraine.

During the week, export demand prices in the ports of the Black Sea increased by 2-3 $/t to 200-204 $/t or 9450-9550 UAH/t, while processors increased prices by 100-200 UAH/t to 8600-9000 UAH/t with delivery to the plant.

As of October 10, Ukraine harvested 10.565 million tons of corn with a yield of 5.38 t/ha from 1.96 million hectares or 48% of the area, so the total harvest is forecast at 24-26 million tons, which worsens the export prospects.

In 2024/25 MY, Ukraine exported 3.3 mln tonnes of corn (3 mln tonnes in the same period last year), including 538 thsd tonnes in October 1-14, which is 75% higher than in October 2023.

December corn futures on the Chicago stock exchange for the week fell by 5% to 158 $/t (+2.5% for the month) under pressure from lower oil prices, favorable weather for sowing in Brazil and active harvesting in the United States.

On October 13, corn in the United States harvested on 47% of the area (39% on average for 5 years), and the forecast for the coming weeks, dry and warm weather will allow to complete the harvest with minimal losses.

Corn Exports from the U.S. for the week decreased by 55% to 430,3 thousand tons, and in General in the season reached 4,719 million tons, which is 19% ahead of last year’s pace.

Brazil as of October 11, the first crop corn planted 45.8% of the area (51.5% last year, 46.7% on average for 5 years), and the acceleration of soybean planting improves the prospects for sowing corn second crop.

According to the forecast of Conab agency, in MY 2024/25 Brazil will harvest 119.74 mln tonnes of corn, which is 4.04 mln tonnes more than in MY 2023/24.

Amid improving sowing conditions, Brazil is increasing the supply of corn to the world market, and for 1-14 October exported 2.5 million tons of grain.

November corn futures on the stock exchange in Paris for the week fell by 1.3% to 213,25 €/t or 230 $/t (+3.8% for the month) following the quotes in Chicago, although supported by the depreciation of the Euro and delayed harvest in the EU.

Heavy rains delayed the harvest in France, so, according to FranceAgriMer, as of October 7, corn harvested only 6% of the area (50% last year), which is the worst figure in the last 11 years. France is the largest corn producer in the EU, harvesting about 15 million tons annually and exporting about 40% of this volume.

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Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices