Corn prices in Ukraine continue to rise

Amid speculative growth in world corn prices, lower freight costs and limited supply from farmers, export demand prices for corn in Ukraine this week increased by 1-3 USD/t to 210-212 USD/t or 10000-10150 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports, with prices for March deliveries exceeding 213 USD/t.

This year, Ukrainian farmers have sold rapeseed, soybeans and sunseed at high prices, so they do not need funds and are holding back sales of wheat and corn amid uncertainty about the hryvnia exchange rate and in anticipation of rising prices.

However, it is worth mentioning that the forecast for MY2024/25 is 23 mln tonnes of corn exports, and as of January 22, only 11.6 mln tonnes were shipped (12 mln tonnes in the same period last year). Currently, the main suppliers of corn on the world market are Ukraine and the United States, but in February there may be problems with the supply of U.S. corn to Mexico, and in March the new crop from Argentina will enter the market.

Recent rains in Argentina have reduced the heat and improved the condition of corn crops, but speculators have increased demand for corn amid a delay in sowing the second crop in Brazil due to heavy rainfall.

According to AgRural, as of January 15, in Brazil, the first crop corn was harvested on 4.1% of the area, and soybeans – on 1.2% (6% last year), so the second crop corn was planted on only 0.3% of the planned area. Heavy rains have created significant soil moisture reserves, so Brazilian farmers still have the opportunity to plant corn quickly.

After the inauguration of Trump, the March corn futures on the Chicago stock exchange rose to a 7-month high of 192,9 $/t, but yesterday fell 1.2% to 190,5 $/t (+6.8% for the month).

President trump has not yet imposed duties on imports of goods from China, Mexico and Canada, but said that for Mexico and Canada 25% tariff will take effect from February 1, and for China the duty rate will be 10%, which somewhat supported the markets.

At the same time, the United States is increasing corn exports, which for the week of January 10-16 increased compared to the previous week by 6.9% to 1,541 million tons, and in general in the season reached 19.25 million tons, which is 30.5% ahead of last year’s pace.

S&P Global has increased compared to the estimates of December forecast corn planting area in the United States in 2025 by 700 thousand acres to 93.5 million acres, which will increase pressure on the quotes in April, especially on the background of the successful completion of planting corn in Brazil.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices, USA, Argentina, Mexico