Corn prices in Ukraine are maintained at $209-210/t
The corn market remains stable after an active second decade of January. The price on a CPT-port basis is held at $209-210, up $2 per week.
This is reported by analysts at Spike Brokers.
Trading has become calmer, demand for February is partially secured, and the market is smoothly transitioning into a more balanced phase. At the same time, the fundamental picture remains supportive: the pace of physical exports is high, domestic logistics is stable, and the situation in South America can potentially add price momentum in the near future.
In particular, weather conditions in Argentina are deteriorating: only 46% of corn crops are in good condition, which is a significant drop compared to 82% at the beginning of the month. Although forecasters predict rain, the risks to the harvest are already partially embedded in stock quotes, despite the fact that the market has begun to play off weather forecasts.
On the CBOT, the March contract is held in the range of 429-433 ¢/bu, with local attempts to break higher, but without a clear macro signal.
For the period from January 1 to 29, the total volume of corn exports from Ukraine amounted to 2.66 million tons. The largest importers were Turkey (625.1 thousand tons), Italy (606.7 thousand tons), Spain (280.7 thousand tons), Egypt (239.3 thousand tons), Tunisia (229.3 thousand tons), the Netherlands (133.9 thousand tons), Algeria (88.7 thousand tons), Belgium (62.7 thousand tons), Portugal (66.0 thousand tons), Israel (76.7 thousand tons).
Over 1.2 million tons were exported to the EU countries. Italy, a key consumer of Ukrainian corn, has already imported about 2 million tons since the beginning of the season, which, according to various estimates, corresponds to about 50-70% of its annual import needs outside the EU. On the western border, prices remain stable – about €176-178 FCA Chop. Logistics through the western crossings operate with certain restrictions, but corn continues to move by railcars towards Italy.
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