Corn import supplies become more diverse amid trade tensions

Chinese importers are ramping up efforts to diversify the nation’s corn import sources to mitigate risks amid rising trade tensions, driven by the new US administration’s tariff policy and other factors. Domestic farmers are also putting more effort into boosting production to secure supplies, a senior industry analyst said on Wednesday.

The remark came as data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) showed that in the first two months of this year, corn imports amounted to 180,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 97.1 percent.

Multiple factors contributed to the decline in corn imports, including the narrowing price margin for importers compared with domestically grown corn, as well as the need for traders to diversify their supply sources amid concerns over trade tensions driven by the new US administration’s tariff policy, Xi Yinsheng, a senior industry analyst at the Research Center for Rural Economy, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MOA), told the Global Times on Wednesday.

The import reduction aligned with the trend outlined by the MOA in January, which projected a significant decline in China’s corn imports for the 2024-25 marketing year.

Since the beginning of this year, the price advantage of imported corn has largely disappeared, Xi Yinsheng said. “According to our monitoring, the post-duty price of imported corn delivered to southern ports is roughly the same as domestic corn prices, or even slightly higher,” the expert said, indicating that for traders, importing corn offers little to no profit.

Concern over trade tensions was another reason for the import reduction, according to the expert. On February 1, the US government announced it would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on goods imported from China. On February 4, China’s Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council said that China would impose additional tariffs on certain US products starting from February 10, the Xinhua News Agency reported.

The move was in accordance with the basic principles of international law, and with Chinese laws and regulations such as the tariff law, the foreign trade law and the customs law, according to a statement from the commission.

The trade situation worsened after the US government announced the imposition of an additional 10 percent tariff on all Chinese goods imported to the US, citing the fentanyl issue as an excuse, on March 3.

On March 4, China announced a series of countermeasures against the US tariffs, with moves including imposing additional tariffs of 10-15 percent on US agricultural products such as corn and soybeans starting from March 10.

According to a report by China News Service, in 2024, China imported 13.64 million tons of corn, with 2.07 million tons coming from the US, accounting for 15.2 percent of total imports.

Given these circumstances, Xi Yinsheng said that it is unlikely that corn imports will remain at the high levels seen in 2024 through 2025.

“Looking at the market situation in 2025, reducing grain imports from the US will have little impact on China,” said Wang Liaowei, an analyst at the China National Grain and Oils Information Center, according to a report published by China News Service on March 13.

Since 2023, Brazil has replaced the US as China’s largest source of corn imports, and the reduction in US corn and sorghum imports can be fully offset by supplies from Brazil and other countries, Wang said.

China is also ramping up domestic corn production, with new agricultural technology being adopted. During this year’s two sessions, Yan Jianbing, a member of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference and president of Huazhong Agricultural University, stated that China is developing high-protein corn varieties with a protein content exceeding 10 percent.

Last year, China’s total corn production reached 290 million tons, CCTV reported, citing Chinese experts, noting that if the protein content in corn kernels increases by just one percentage point, it would be equivalent to an additional 2.9 million tons of protein. With effective utilization, this could reduce annual soybean imports by 7 to 8 million tons.

Currently, more than 10 million mu (666,667 hectares) of high-protein corn with more than 10 percent protein content have been promoted nationwide, the report said.

As domestic supply expands, corn import demand is expected to decrease by about 50 percent in 2025, China News Service reported.

Tags: China, corn