Conab forecasts record grain harvest in Brazil of 353 mln tons

Brazil is once again confirming its status as the United States’ main competitor. The National Supply Company (Conab) published its latest report on the 2025/26 harvest, noting several trends: favorable weather in Mato Grosso will ensure a record 178 million tons of soybeans, while corn ethanol production will significantly impact the structure of domestic grain consumption in the South American country for the first time.

According to Conab’s fifth report, the country’s harvest of the primary oilseed will reach 178 million tons, 6.5 million tons more than the previous cycle.

The harvest in leading states is proceeding ahead of schedule: in Mato Grosso, the main soybean producer, 47% of the area has already been threshed, and yields are in line with optimistic forecasts. The area planted to oilseeds has expanded by 1.5 million hectares, completely offsetting the slight decline in average productivity (from 4,310 to 4,244 kg/ha).

Conab analysts expect a slight decline in the gross corn harvest, to 138.4 million tons (down 1.9% from last season). Domestic corn consumption increased from 84 to 90.5 million tons for the year. This is a historic high, driven by the ethanol production boom, Conab emphasizes.

Despite the projected harvest decline, Brazil’s corn export potential in 2025/2026 will increase to 46.5 million tons (compared to 41.5 million the previous year). This is possible thanks to strong logistics and strong demand from China and other importers.

Total grain production in Brazil (including all crops) is estimated at 353.4 million tons—another record, driven by extensive planting growth.

Tags: grain, Brazil, crop forecast