Conab cuts Brazil coffee production forecast, sees price rise

Conab has lowered its forecast for the 2025 Brazilian coffee harvest. The harvest is almost complete, with the total volume estimated at 55.2 million 60-kilogram bags. The May forecast was for 55.7 million bags. Despite the reduction, the new estimate suggests production will grow by 1.8% compared to last year.

According to the agency’s new expectations, Arabica production in Brazil will amount to 35.15 million bags this year, compared to the May forecast of 37 million bags. The Robusta harvest is estimated at 20.05 million bags, compared to 18.7 million bags in May.

The recent increase in US tariffs on Brazilian goods may stimulate further growth in coffee prices on the world market. Coffee stocks are at their lowest level in 25 years. The US will face stiff competition from other large buyers, including from Europe, for coffee from other sources. In such conditions, the upward momentum for global prices is likely to continue, Conab believes.

The United States is the largest consumer of coffee, Brazil is the leading producer and supplier. The United States has no substitute for Brazilian coffee: its share in the country’s market in 2024 was 33%. Importers and industry organizations are lobbying the US government to abandon the 50% tariff on coffee, Conab analysts recall.

Tags: prices, Brazil