Cold snap in Ukraine puts market focus on winter oilseed rape conditions

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

The 2023/24 season.

Performance of the first half of the 2023/24 rapeseed season (July-Dec)

• Rapeseed production was record high in 2023
• In the 2023/24 about 79% of the export potential was shipped (usually this figure exceeds 90% and reaches 99% in some seasons).
• The share of rapeseed exported through ports has decreased significantly
• Exports by land (Railways, trucks) have become an alternative exports outlet which allows to ship the entire export potential of the rapeseed market.
• Rapeseed oil exports was record high, or 95% of export potential.
• Exports of rapeseed meal – 69% of export potential

UkrAgroConsult’s forecast of a sharp increase in rapeseed processing is fully realised.

2024/25 season

As of 27 November 2023, winter rapeseed area in Ukraine was 1164.2 K ha, this is slightly less than planned 1211.6 K ha.

Weather factor. Due to the intrusion of Arctic air masses from the northeast across Ukraine since 3 January, the key issue for winter rapeseed is its condition.

The main assessment criteria include air temperature, snow cover and the duration of the cold spell.

Potentially, weather in the first half of January could have the biggest negative impact on 10-13% of the total winter rapeseed area.

The optimistic outlook for the plant condition is supported by the short-term cold snap and the failure to reach critical temperatures (minus 15°C and below is considered critical in the absence of snow cover).

UkrAgroConsult keeps the current optimistic forecast of rapeseed harvest in 2024 more than 4 M mt  unchanged.

At the time of this article publishing, the short term weather forecast has become even more favorable. Air temperature is expected to be higher and snow cover will be absent only in the south of Ukraine.

Even if the pessimistic scenario is realised and winter rapeseed losses are 10-12% (this is the average losses for Ukraine), UkrAgroConsult expects a harvest higher than the average of the last three years (3.6 M mt).

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Tags: crop condition, rapeseed oil, crop forecast, Ukraine, export, rapeseed