Climatologists warn: three years left to limit warming to 1.5°C

The Earth could be on track to breach the symbolic 1.5°C warming limit in just three years at current levels of carbon dioxide emissions, the BBC reports.

It is a stark warning from more than 60 of the world’s leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global warming.

Almost 200 countries agreed to try to limit the rise in global temperatures to 1.5°C above late 1800s levels in a landmark 2015 deal aimed at avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change. But countries are continuing to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and cut down carbon-rich forests, putting the achievement of this international target at risk.

“Things are going in the wrong direction. We are seeing some unprecedented changes, and we are also seeing the acceleration of global warming and sea level rise,” said lead author Professor Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds.

“These changes have been predicted for some time, and we can directly link them to very high emissions,” he added.

In early 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion tonnes more of carbon dioxide (CO2) – the most important gas warming the planet – with a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5°C.

But, according to new research, this so-called “carbon budget” had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes by early 2025. This reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases such as methane, as well as improved scientific assessments.

If global CO2 emissions remain at their current high of around 40 billion tonnes per year, 130 billion tonnes would give the world about three years until this carbon budget is exhausted.

This could put the global community well short of the target set by the Paris Agreement, the researchers say, although the planet is unlikely to exceed 1.5°C due to human-induced warming for several more years.