Chinese processors will rely on South American and Chinese soybeans

In the 2025/2026 season, China will import 106 million tons of soybeans, 1 million tons less than in the current season, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS USDA). The new season begins on October 1.

As of September 11, China did not purchase new-crop soybeans from the US and continued to rely on South American exporters. Soybeans from the US are currently subject to a 23% tariff, making them uncompetitive compared to soybeans from South American countries.

In May 2025, China set a record for soybean imports – 13.9 million tons, driven by 12.1 million tons from Brazil. The large volume of Brazilian soybean imports in May was partly due to delays in the harvest and the arrival of export shipments at Brazilian ports. Brazilian soybean shipments to China exceeded 10 million tons per month from June to August. In recent weeks, as Brazilian soybean supplies began to dwindle and prices rose, China contracted additional shipments from Argentina and Uruguay to compensate for the lack of its usual seasonal soybean purchases from the United States. Market participants estimate that these recent contracts and the large commercial stockpiles that accumulated over the summer will ensure sufficient soybean supplies until mid-December.

Market participants believe that the United States and China will likely reach some agreement to allow some volumes of American soybeans into the Chinese market in the first half of the 2025/2026 season, but are preparing for alternative scenarios. Chinese authorities are expected to continue pressuring crushers (especially state-owned ones) to use more Chinese soybeans, despite their uncompetitive price and the logistical difficulties of transporting them from northeast China to consumption centers located further south.

China’s domestic soybean production is approximately 19.9 million tonnes, which is well below annual consumption. According to USDA FAS forecasts, domestic soybean consumption in China will increase to 125.6 million tons next season (123.7 million tons in the current season).

Tags: imports, Argentina, duties, China, Brazil, soybean, USA