China’s US soybean imports rise in March, but Brazil set to dominate market

China’s U.S. soybean imports rose 12% in March from a year earlier, as shipments purchased in late 2024 arrived at the port by buyers concerned about the possibility of a U.S.-China trade conflict.

However, Brazil is expected to dominate the market in the coming months as its harvest season begins.

China imported 2.44 million tonnes of the oilseed from the U.S. in March, accounting for just under three-quarters of its total imports, according to the General Administration of Customs.

“March shipments reflect precautionary buying by crushers in the fourth quarter of last year amid concerns about renewed trade tensions if Trump returns to power,” said analyst Rosa Wang of Shanghai-based agribusiness consultancy JCI.

Brazil’s imports fell 69% in March to 0.95 million tonnes, or 27% of total soybean imports for the month. The slower shipments were partly due to harvest delays in the Latin American country.

Total soybean shipments in March fell to their lowest monthly level since 2008.

Soybean shipments to China from the United States rose 62% in the January-March quarter from a year earlier to 11.6 million tonnes. Shipments from Brazil totaled 4.5 million tonnes, down 55% from a year earlier.

That gave Brazil’s market share in the first quarter to 26%, compared with 68% for the United States, according to Reuters calculations.

Analysts forecast that China’s soybean imports could reach a record 31.3 million tonnes in the April-June quarter, driven by the arrival of freshly harvested beans from Brazil’s record crop.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, USA, China