China’s soybean stockpiles are piling up, threatening US export plans

China is facing a glut of soybean inventories after months of record imports, limiting prospects for purchases from the United States despite trade easing, Reuters reported.

According to analysts, huge stockpiles at ports and in government reserves, as well as negative crushing margins, are reducing China’s appetite for new purchases.

Even despite tariff relief, margins remain negative, and Brazilian soybeans are cheaper, according to traders.

Soybean inventories at ports have reached a record 10.3 million tonnes, 3.6 million tonnes higher than a year ago. Crushers are holding 7.5 million tonnes, the highest since 2017.

Soymeal prices have fallen more than 20% from their April peaks. Crushers are suffering losses of around 190 yuan per tonne, a situation expected to last until March.

Despite the meeting between US and Chinese leaders, there is no confirmed information about the purchase of 12 million tons from the US. State buyers COFCO and Sinograin are not active.

Some traders estimate state soybean reserves at 40-45 million tons—enough for five months of domestic demand.

Brazilian soybeans are priced at $480 CFR for January, while US soybeans are priced at $540-550. Chinese importers have already booked approximately 2 million tons for December—more than 40% of their monthly needs.

Analysts note that there are no signs yet of large-scale purchases.

Tags: China, Brazil, prices, soybean, USA, stocks