China’s soybean meal stockpiles rise, US soybean imports in doubt

Record bean imports in May-June 2025 and weak feed sector demand are holding back purchases for the upcoming US export season.

According to traders’ estimates, China’s demand for soybeans could decline significantly by the end of this year – just in time for peak US sales. In the first half of 2025, soybean imports reached a historic high, but the processing industry faced sluggish demand for compound feed, which led to the accumulation of record soybean meal stocks.

• Not a single contract for the supply of US soybeans to China from October to December has been recorded yet.
• Chicago soybean exchange quotations have fallen for the second week in a row amid expectations of high harvests in South America, and soybean meal futures in China have fallen for the fourth session in a row.

The situation is exacerbated by weak domestic demand. Pork consumption, a key driver of the feed market, remains below expectations, and authorities are putting additional pressure on the industry, demanding a reduction in the number of sows, a limit on the introduction of new farms, and a reduction in the share of soybean meal in feed recipes in order to stabilize meat prices. According to analysts, these measures will further reduce the consumption of soy components. An additional factor in excess supply is the recent purchases of Argentine soybean meal, which turned out to be more profitable against the backdrop of persistent high duties on American soybeans. All this casts doubt on the prospects for active US purchases in the upcoming export season and increases pressure on world prices.

Tags: China, soybean, soybean meal, USA