China’s soybean meal glut will dampen demand ahead of US soybean export season

China’s demand for soybeans is likely to weaken later this year, during the peak U.S. marketing season, as record imports in early 2025 and weak demand from animal feed makers have led to rising domestic inventories. The world’s largest soybean importer has yet to book any shipments from the U.S. for the fourth quarter, Reuters reports.

Weaker demand in China could weigh on Chicago soybean futures, which have fallen for a second straight week on expectations of a bumper South American crop. Chinese soybean meal futures also fell for a fourth straight session.

According to OleoScope, on 28/07/2025, the price of soybeans (Daylian) for July delivery was $582.77 per tonne, down $6.39 per tonne from the previous value of $589.15 per tonne on 25/07/2025. This is the lowest value in a week. In the physical market, the spot price of soybean meal in North China was 2,925 yuan ($408) per tonne, down 6.5% from a year earlier.

According to traders, China’s total soybean imports hit a record high in May and the second-highest in June, leading to increased oilseed crushing and a build-up of soybean meal stocks that are putting additional strain on China’s processing plants. Some plants are being forced to close due to a lack of storage space, the publication notes. The supply glut has been exacerbated by weak demand from animal feed makers amid sluggish consumption in the world’s largest pork market.

China has pledged to reduce sow herds, limit new capacity additions and reduce the use of soybean meal in feed to stabilize meat prices after a sharp decline this year. Analysts say the measures will further curb soy consumption. China’s purchases of Argentine soybean meal amid high tariffs on U.S. soybeans in recent weeks are likely to further widen the supply glut.

Earlier, China was reported to be seeking to end its massive soybean imports, with plans to cut annual imports of the bean by about 10 million tonnes.

Tags: China, soybean, USA