China’s pork supply chain remains robust despite trade, tariff challenges

China, the world’s largest pork consumer, is expected to remain resilient amid growing tariff challenges and trade tensions, supported by strong domestic production and diversified imports.

The US-China trade conflict has pushed tariffs on American pork exports to record levels, peaking at 172% in April. A recent temporary moratorium reduced tariffs to 57%, offering limited relief.

Canada and the EU, other key pork exporters to China, are also navigating complex trade dynamics with the Asian nation. Since March, Canada has faced a 25% tariff on pork exports to China, while the EU remains under a Chinese antidumping investigation on pork products until December.

Despite global trade uncertainties, China’s expanding domestic production and strategic import diversification have bolstered its ability to maintain a stable pork supply chain.

Supply diversification

China has actively reduced its reliance on US pork since the trade dispute during US President Donald Trump’s first term. In 2024, the US ranked as the third-largest pork supplier to China, accounting for 7% of China’s total imports and just 0.1% of its total supply.

Over the past decade, the US share in China’s pork imports has nearly halved, dropping from 13% in 2015 to 7% in 2024, according to Chinese customs data.

Spain has solidified its position as the leading pork supplier, increasing its market share from 18% to 28% during the same period. Brazil has also emerged as a significant player, growing its share from 0% to 22%.

“Due to tariffs, South American sellers know they are the best suppliers and will not lower their offers for Chinese buyers,” a Beijing-based analyst said.

Despite existing tariffs, China’s pork imports from the US rose 13% year over year in the first five months of 2025. The US remains a key supplier of pig offal, a crucial segment of China’s pork imports.

According to trade data from the US Census Bureau, 55% of US pig offal exports in 2024 went to China. Cumulatively, over January to May 2025, the US accounted for 25% of China’s pig offal imports, despite a 12.6% decline in export volumes compared to the previous year.

Declining imports

Other than supply diversification and reducing reliance on the US, China’s overall declining import trend has further insulated its pork markets from tariff impacts.

In 2024, imports accounted for just 4% of China’s pork consumption, with the US contributing 17% of this trade, according to Chinese customs data.

Pork imports peaked at 4.3 million mt in 2020 due to the African Swine Flu outbreak that devastated China’s hog population. Since then, imports have steadily declined as domestic production recovered. In 2024, China’s pork imports fell 31% year over year to 1.06 million mt, with US imports dropping 37% to 77,951 mt.

This downward trend is expected to continue in 2025, with projections indicating a further 9% decrease, bringing imports below 1 million mt, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“Looking ahead, we expect China’s pork import volumes to soften due to growing industry consolidation and the ongoing push for self-sufficiency in local production,” said Jessie Khor, proteins analyst at S&P Global Commodity Insights.

“Concurrently, an aging population and declining consumer sentiment are likely to slow pork consumption, leading to mid-single-digit declines,” Khor added.

Growing domestic supply

After a significant decline due to ASF in 2020, domestic production in China peaked at 57.94 million mt in 2023. In 2025, production is expected to rise 0.6% year over year to 57.4 million mt, driven by stable demand, according to Commodity Insights.

By the end of April, China’s sow inventory reached 40.38 million heads, up 1.3% year over year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. This upward trend in production and inventory ensures a stable domestic supply, strengthening China’s resilience to tariffs and trade challenges.

“The focus is on improving production efficiency, and currently, production conditions are relatively favorable. However, profitability remains a significant risk,” Khor said.

Stable pork demand

China’s pork consumption has shown steady growth in recent years. In 2024, the country consumed approximately 59.5 million mt, accounting for more than 50% of global consumption. However, domestic pork consumption is projected to rise only 0.2% to 59.6 million mt in 2025, according to Platts, part of Commodity Insights.

Factors such as shifting dietary preferences, an aging population and a sluggish economy are expected to temper growth.

“Pork consumption has seen the turning point, with per capita consumption expected to stay stable or start a decreasing trend,” Rosa Wang, an analyst with agricultural consultancy JCI, said.

Price pressures

As China’s domestic supply increases, local pork prices have remained subdued, minimizing the impact of global trade disputes.

In 2024, reduced supply led to higher pork prices than in 2023, peaking at Yuan 31.42/kg in September, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. However, prices began to trend down in late 2024.

By April, prices declined to Yuan 26.07/kg, down 1.2% month over month. In 2025, China’s pork prices are under pressure from domestic oversupply and subdued demand.

Platts-assessed CFR North Asia pork belly prices fell 5.4% from this year’s high of $5,780/mt on May 26 to $5,470/mt on June 25.

Tags: China, pork