China’s pork production will decline in 2025

Pork production is expected to decline in 2025 due to weak demand and fewer pigs for slaughter.

A reduction in the number of sows in 2024 will result in fewer piglets that will grow into pigs for consumption. In addition, pork production in the second half of 2025 is expected to be higher than in the first half of 2025 as the number of sows recovers by the end of 2024. This increase in production is due to the response of pork producers and large companies to the recent increase in hog prices.

Producers have developed methods to manage and control African swine fever. According to USDA sources, despite sporadic outbreaks of ASF, its impact on pork production has been limited. In addition, the share of production in the hands of large pork producers is increasing, and these companies are better prepared for ASF.

Reduced pork consumption due to changes in diet

The decline in pork consumption in 2025 is expected to be mainly due to changes in diet. Pork remains a staple food, but consumers are increasingly exposed to other sources of animal protein such as beef, poultry and seafood, many of which are considered healthier. Over the past 14 years, total meat consumption in China has increased by nearly 20% due to demographic changes, protein availability, increased purchasing power, improvements in the cold chain and changes in consumer preferences, which include some shifts in meat consumption. However, the share of pork in China’s meat consumption has declined and this trend is expected to continue through 2025.

Pork imports

Pork imports will remain stable in 2025. Most consumers prefer fresh/chilled pork over frozen pork due to the perception of flavor and nutritional value. Prices for imported frozen pork tend to be lower than domestic pork, and most importers are responding to these price signals. With weaker pork demand in 2025, it is expected that the decline in consumption will be mainly driven by domestic pork, and some imports of competitively priced frozen pork may go into China’s strategic domestic reserves.

The main suppliers of pork to China are Spain, Brazil, Denmark, the Netherlands, Canada, Spain, the Netherlands, and the United States. USDA sources indicate that prices are becoming an important factor in pork imports.

Pork exports

Pork exports are projected to grow slightly year-over-year by 2025 as demand in China’s export markets, mainly Hong Kong and Japan, is considered mature. China mainly exports cooked, frozen and fresh pork to Hong Kong and finished pork to Japan.

In the first half of 2024, exports increased slightly as demand for cooked and frozen pork in Hong Kong recovered. In 2025, the demand for pork in Hong Kong is expected to continue, the demand for pork in Hong Kong can be met by live pigs for profit.

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Tags: China, pork