China’s pork production declines amid weak demand and herd reduction

China’s pork production fell 0.8% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2024, marking the third consecutive quarter of annual decline. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, production from June to September in the world’s largest pork-producing country fell to 12.59 million tons. This continued decline reflects a difficult economic situation as consumer demand remains subdued, affecting the country’s huge pork industry, which supplies nearly half of the global pork market.

The downturn in demand has led to a slowdown in slaughter rates as households cut back on spending amid economic uncertainty. “There are still supply pressures in the market and no obvious improvement in demand…. Supply and demand are at an impasse,” Beijing-based agribusiness consultancy Boyar said, highlighting persistent problems in balancing production and consumption.

In the first nine months of 2024, pork production fell 1.4% to 42.4 million tons, while the number of pigs slaughtered declined 3.2% to 520.3 million. In addition, the size of China’s pig herd stood at 426.94 million head by the end of September, down 3.5% year-on-year, in line with the government’s goals to address overcapacity, which has contributed to lower pork prices.

Despite this, some livestock companies saw profits in the third quarter thanks to inventory reduction efforts and cost-saving strategies that helped stabilize hog prices. However, demand constraints have limited price increases, and cash hog prices recently fell to a four-month low of US$2.41/kg. The price of hogs fell to US$2.41/kg after reaching US$2.95/kg in August. This was down to US$2.41/kg in August, according to MySteel data. The sow herd has also suffered, falling 4.8% to 40.36 million as of August, according to China’s Ministry of Agriculture.

This combination of weak consumer demand, government-backed herd reductions and cautious market reaction underscores a turning point for China’s pork industry, which is facing difficult economic pressures and structural adjustments.

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Tags: China, pork