China’s new tariffs – a shock for American farmers?

In response to the increase in tariffs on all Chinese imports to the United States from 10 to 20%, China on March 4 announced the introduction of tariffs on American agricultural products from March 10, 2025. Tariffs will be 15% for chicken, wheat, corn and cotton, while tariffs of 10% will be introduced for other types of food (sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, fruits and vegetables, dairy products). At first glance, the tariffs for American exporters are insignificant, since the top 10 largest US export groups to China include only oilseeds and fruits (mainly soybeans), but for American farmers-exporters, the measures taken by China may be very sensitive. Thus, half of US soybean exports go to China (in 2024, China imported 27 million tons of soybeans from the US, +1% y/y), and almost 90% of US sorghum is exported to China (4.8 million tons in 2024, +23% y/y). In such specific products as chicken feet, China’s share in US exports in value terms exceeds 70%.

China, in turn, is taking measures to strengthen food security, consistently reducing its dependence on food supplies from the US. For example, soybean supplies from Brazil are increasing: their share has grown from about 40% in 2016 to 71% in volume terms in 2024. Brazil has also become the largest supplier of corn to China after supplies from that country were approved in 2022, while US corn exports to China in 2024 fell to 7 million tons, which is 65% less than in 2021.

Tags: corn, soybean, USA, restrictions, China