China’s garlic production rises by 30%, making it difficult for the market to sustain high prices

Recently, Jining Green Stream Fruits & Vegetables Co., Ltd. conducted a nine-day field survey of China’s major garlic-producing regions. Manager Zhang from the company shared the findings and provided an outlook for this season’s garlic market.

As the sales manager of Jining Green Stream Fruits & Vegetables, Zhang noted, “In 2025, China’s garlic planting area increased by approximately 8% year-on-year, with a significant yield growth of about 20–25%. Overall production rose by roughly 30–35% compared to 2024.” He added, “In terms of size distribution, garlic below 4.5cm is scarce, while most of the supply consists of bulbs measuring 5.5cm and above. The output of white garlic has also seen a notable increase, up about 25% year-on-year.”

According to Zhang, the shift in size distribution has impacted the export market. “Some markets that traditionally prefer smaller garlic, such as Africa, are now compelled to purchase larger-sized products this year. Conversely, markets like Brazil, which favor larger garlic, will benefit from the current supply. Additionally, the minimal price difference between sizes this year will enhance export flexibility.”

Regarding market expectations for the season, Zhang stated, “Given the expanded planting area and higher yields, market supply is abundant, making it difficult to sustain long-term high prices. This year, the market is expected to follow a trend of ‘high starting point, low development.'”

“Domestically, China accounts for 65% of total garlic consumption,” Zhang explained. “Although demand remains stable with relatively high price acceptance, the current oversupply means domestic procurement has limited influence on market trends.” He also highlighted changes in storage behavior: “In 2025, storage operators are adopting a more cautious approach, mostly waiting for the right opportunity to enter the market. This rational stance helps prevent market bubbles and keeps prices within a reasonable low range.”

On the global front, Zhang pointed out, “Garlic planting areas in Egypt, India, Bangladesh, and other countries have expanded significantly this year, leading to a substantial increase in global supply. As a result, China’s garlic exports face fiercer competition, further limiting upward price movement.”

“We advise customers to purchase based on actual demand and avoid excessive stockpiling,” Zhang concluded. “This approach will mitigate business risks and ensure sound strategies in a generally weak market environment.”

Tags: garlic, China